[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is lacklustre into the FOMC; GBP mildly pressured following UK CPI

The transmission question flagged here is the standard one for a priced 25bp hike, namely that the rate itself moves nothing and the repricing comes through the projections, the vote dispersion, and the press conference language, with the front end and the belly of the Treasury curve the channels where hawkishness shows first. The observation that higher yields require reassuring rather than hawkish guidance reflects the recurring dynamic of hike cycles run against fragile bond sentiment, where the curve's reaction to the statement has historically mattered more for the dollar than the statement itself. On the UK side, an unchanged core and services print ahead of a hold decision fits the familiar sequence in which in-line inflation into a steady MPC trims priced tightening at the short end of the gilt curve and weighs modestly on sterling, with the vote split the detail that has tended to drive follow-through. The calendar ordering is the tell: UK rates land the day after the Fed, so sterling's next decisive move is more likely to come from the MPC tally than from this data. Proximity effects matter too, as releases scheduled hours before an FOMC have consistently been faded or ignored.