[MARKET ANALYSIS] JGBs benefit post-BoJ, USTs trade tentatively whilst Bunds and Gilts lag

The curve response is the tell, with the short end underperforming and the curve steepening against flattening peers, the classic signature of a hike the market reads as one-and-done rather than the start of a sequence. The split between core benchmarks is consistent with past episodes where idiosyncratic central bank risk dominates the global duration bid: Bunds and Gilts carry their own hawkish ECB speak and event risk, while USTs sit flat ahead of scheduled Fed commentary, a holding pattern that tends to resolve with the speakers rather than before them. The bear-flattening across the board, with the energy bid doing the work at the front end, is the established transmission when supply-side price pressure meets a hawkish repricing, and it has historically left the long end relatively sheltered until the inflation signal proves durable. What separates this from a clean global rates selloff is the JGB outperformance, which marks the move as policy-divergence driven rather than a uniform duration repricing. The follow-ons are the Fed speakers, further ECB commentary, and whether the energy pressure persists long enough to migrate from the front end to breakevens further out.