[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures climb alongside a tech sell-off

USTs: +18 ticks

• Extended on gains alongside the AI-related jitters and several disappointing big tech earnings.

Bunds: +39 ticks

• Remained underpinned after shrugging off the choppy mood following the ECB meeting, while participants await the latest CPI data from Germany and Eurozone GDP.

JGBs: +44 ticks

• Tracked the gains in global peers, with participants digesting mixed data, while attention turns to the looming BoJ rate decision and Outlook Report.

A synchronised bid across USTs, Bunds and JGBs alongside an equity sell-off is the classic cross-asset flight pattern: when the driver is growth or earnings anxiety rather than inflation, duration rallies and the equity-bond correlation turns negative, with tech-led declines historically the most reliable trigger given the sector's weight in indices. The +18 tick move in T-notes against larger gains in Bunds and JGBs is consistent with episodes where the originating shock is US-centric, as Treasuries have often already repriced before overseas sessions open and the catch-up happens in Europe and Asia. The case distinction that matters here is between an equity de-rating driven by earnings disappointment, which tends to leave the rally contained and prone to fade, and one that feeds through to rate-cut pricing at the front end, which extends it. The calendar is now the binding constraint: German CPI and Eurozone GDP test whether the post-ECB Bund bid survives fresh data, while the BoJ decision and Outlook Report are the event most capable of decoupling JGBs from global peers, given the bank's prior form in surprising on both action and guidance. Watch whether the long end leads or lags; bull flattening has historically signalled conviction in the growth scare, while a belly-led bid signals it is being read as a policy story.