Midterms update: Senate nears a coin flip following US-Israel attack on Iran

Since the inception of Operation Epic Fury, the joint military strikes of US & Israel on Iran, the chances of the Republicans winning in 2026 have dropped from 60% to 54% on Polymarket.

• According to a NYT report compiling polls of public support for US military invention in the first days of international conflict, American opposition to the war with Iran is the most when compared to past conflicts.

Sources: World War II: Gallup poll conducted Dec. 12-17, 1941; Korean War: NORC poll conducted July 1-31, 1950; Grenada: Gallup poll conducted Oct. 26-27, 1983; Panama: ABC poll conducted Dec. 20, 1989; Persian Gulf War: Los Angeles Times poll conducted Jan. 17-18, 1991; Kosovo: Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek survey conducted April 1-2, 1999; Afghanistan War: Gallup poll conducted Oct. 11-14, 2001; Iraq War: Gallup poll conducted March 20, 2003; Libyan intervention: Gallup poll conducted March 21, 2011; Iran: CNN poll conducted Feb. 28-March 1, 2026.

• A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 27% approve of US military strikes against Iran; Democrats 7%, Republican 55%, Independent 19%.
• A Fox News poll found 50% approve and 50% disapprove of the current US military action against Iran.

With The Economist survey highlighting the top two key issues for Democrats and Republicans as Jobs/Economy and Inflation/Prices, it's likely only to get worse for the Republican Party in the short-term given the 30% rally in oil prices since the conflict began (peaked at +78%), unless oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz can be quickly resolved. However, with reports that US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait, optimism over a swift resolution continues to fade, particularly with the release of any strategic reserves serving as short-term relief.

Sources: YouGov/The Economist; BLS; Cooperative Election Study; US Census; Current Population Survey; FiftyPlusOne; Pew Research Centre; The Economist

• Another difficult topic for Republicans/Trump to face in the run up to elections is the confirmation of seven Americans that have now been killed during the US war on Iran. Additionally, the White House said on Tuesday around 150 US troops have been injured.

Separately, focus is on the SAVE America Act, which Trump argued at the House GOP's annual issues conference that “It will guarantee the midterms. If you don’t get it, big trouble.”

• Trump has now demanded that the SAVE America Act must go to the front of the line, and he will not sign other bills until this is passed.
• However, this runs contrary to remarks from the White House Press Secretary Leavitt on Sunday that the Senate should “quickly” confirm Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) as DHS Secretary and pass a funding bill to end the DHS shutdown.
• Trump Truth Social: "THE SAVE AMERICA ACT!
  • 1. ALL VOTERS MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. (IDENTIFICATION!).
  • 2. ALL VOTERS MUST SHOW PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP IN ORDER TO VOTE.
  • 3. NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (EXCEPT FOR ILLNESS, DISABILITY, MILITARY, OR TRAVEL!).
  • 4. NO MEN IN WOMEN’S SPORTS.
  • 5. NO TRANSGENDER MUTILATION SURGERY FOR CHILDREN."