Military experts told CNBC that the US buildup of troops in the Middle East raises the prospect of three possible attack scenarios.

  • Military experts said that the number of additional troops being deployed to the region appears to be consistent with plans for discrete and time-limited operations — rather than a sustained ground campaign.

Three scenarios

1

  • The first possibility is seizing Qeshm Island, which sits “in the horseshoe bend of the Strait of Hormuz,” Davis said.
  • Qeshm Island, off Iran’s southern coast, is the largest island in the Persian Gulf. Located near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the arrow-shaped island has emerged as a potential U.S. target amid reports that anti-ship missiles, mines, drones and attack craft are being kept there in underground tunnels.

2

  • The second target could be Iran’s Kharg Island, the centerpiece of Iran’s oil industry. Often referred to as its “oil lifeline,” Kharg Island is a coral island located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran.

3

  • A third scenario is a raid to capture over 400 kilograms of reprocessed material, provided the U.S. can locate this and it is sufficiently concentrated to make a raid viable.
Context

The speculation surrounding the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and the outlined potential attack scenarios is particularly significant due to the strategic implications for global energy markets. Escalating tensions could disrupt oil supply routes, especially given the proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, potentially driving up prices for WTI and Brent. Traders should closely monitor developments, as any military action could have immediate ripple effects across commodities and geopolitical risk sentiment.

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