Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 26th October 2026

• US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks.
• An Iranian source posted on Telegram that an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz.
• Several UK Budget measures were reported over the weekend, ahead of Wednesday's announcement.
• APAC stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias following last week's surge in oil; European equity futures (ex-FTSE 100) indicate a positive cash open.
• EUR/USD gained slightly, with the single currency back above the 1.1200 level after France was spared from a ratings downgrade by Moody's.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish PPI (Sep), German Ifo (Oct), Chinese Fifth Plenum. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson. Supply from EZ & US, US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support; 20Y-30Y). Earnings from Verizon.
• NOTE: UK clocks moved back one hour on Sunday and reverted to GMT, which means the time difference between London and New York will be four hours for the week ahead.

As of 06:20GMT / 02:20EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Swedish PPI (Sep), German Ifo (Oct), Chinese Fifth Plenum. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson. Supply from EZ & US, US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support; 20Y-30Y). Earnings from Verizon.
• UK clocks moved back one hour on Sunday and reverted to GMT, which means the time difference between London and New York will be four hours for the week ahead.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

• US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, stating, “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That’s all,” according to an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures.
• US President Trump reiterated on Sunday that the Iran conflict will be ending soon one way or another, while he said higher oil prices are a small price to pay for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that there won't be a strike on Iran 'today'.
• US President Trump's administration's senior intelligence official warned in a memo that Iran had ramped up efforts to target US personnel, adding that lethal plots by Tehran against US citizens had reached "advanced stages".
• US ordered the departure of diplomatic personnel and adjusted staffing at embassies across the Middle East due to Iranian efforts to target Americans and threats from Houthi militants in Yemen, according to a US official.
• US official said that they have put together an expanded list of bombing targets in Iran, which include energy and economic infrastructure, while it was also reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu could order a strike on Iran even if he loses the election, according to The New York Times.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu told Israel's Channel 14 that they will strike Iran again. In relevant news, Israeli PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir reportedly clashed over a proposed military action against Iran as Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran before the elections, while Zamir requested further discussions and warned of escalation just two days before Israel’s election, according to Channel 12.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said "fundamental and strategic changes" in the region mean "nothing will be the same" after the 40‑day war, including management of the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that Tehran's policies will not change "whether war breaks out or not" and warned against a military attack on Iran.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei criticised US Secretary of State Rubio's accusations of piracy against Iran and stated that the US takes pride in piracy itself.
• Iranian officials warned their targets will include US diplomats if the US returns to war, according to NYT.
• Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination.
• Explosions were reportedly heard in the sky over the Strait of Hormuz and in Sirik, Iran, while an Iranian source posted on Telegram that an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz.
• Houthi forces said the Saudi-led coalition carried out 56 air and missile strikes on civilian targets in several Yemeni provinces over a 24-hour period.
• Houthi forces said they launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia on Saturday in three separate operations, which targeted the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the King Khalid Airbase in Khamis Mushait and a southern naval base in Jizan. Houthis also announced that they launched a series of strikes on multiple major Saudi airports and energy facilities, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu.
• Houthis announced early on Monday that they targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations with drones and also attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.
• Saudi-led coalition said it carried out a military operation against Houthi targets in Yemen to neutralise sources of threats, while the operation destroyed five ballistic missile storage facilities and four missile launch platforms in Houthi-controlled areas.
• Saudi Arabia reopened its main airport in Riyadh on Sunday after operations were shut down for two weeks due to Houthi attacks.

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished mostly lower on Friday as higher oil prices on an increased geopolitical risk premium weighed on cyclical names via higher yields, but benefited energy names, while Tech saw a slight rebound after Thursday's >3% sell-off. Earnings continued to largely show beats; however, reception has remained poor in terms of price action. Western Digital's strong results helped its peers, although WDC capex concerns and Toshiba competition worries remained (WDC -3.0%). Meanwhile, Industrials was pressured at the open before paring some losses, as Bloom Energy (BE -11.3%) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX -9.3%) sank on margin concerns.
• SPX -0.54% at 7,622, NDX flat at 28,958, DJI -1.24% at 52,215, RUT -0.36% at 2,774.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump defended his decision to impose tariffs during a campaign rally in Georgia, claiming they had made the US richer. He announced that Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) had agreed to build a new USD 4.2bln Audi plant in the state. Trump added that his administration had “many other announcements” to make following the announcement of Volkswagen AG's plans to build the factory.
• US President Trump said they are getting close to a deal with Canada and that a deal could come before the elections.
• White House economic adviser Hassett said US trade negotiations with Canada had picked up and were “gathering steam”, according to an interview with Fox News.
• China said it “firmly opposes” a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China, describing the measures as discriminatory and “a typical example of an overly broad application of national security concerns”. China's MOFCOM added that the proposed restrictions ran counter to the “important consensus” reached by the two countries' presidents and would harm bilateral economic and trade cooperation, as well as US companies' interests, while it added that Beijing will closely monitor developments and reserves the right to take corresponding measures.

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias following last week's surge in oil and amid ongoing geopolitical risks, while participants await this week's tech earnings and several major central bank rate decisions.
• ASX 200 mildly outperformed, with the index kept afloat as strength in the local real estate, tech and the commodity-related sectors offset the losses in defensives, telecoms and financials.
• Nikkei 225 was lower amid tech headwinds and with SoftBank choppy after reports that its CEO Son is discussing a USD 50bln investment plan in Malaysia focused on AI and data centres.
• KOSPI retreated with some indecision seen in the tech heavyweights ahead of their Q3 earnings results this week, while SK Hynix clarified it is considering various shareholder‑return options, but added that nothing was decided and it will unveil additional plans after its Q3 earnings announcement, in response to reports that it plans a KRW 16.0tln special dividend from gains on its Kioxia investment.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound amid several earnings releases, while trade frictions lingered with China firmly opposing a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China.
• US equity futures were choppy and faded some of the initial upward momentum seen at reopen.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Friday.

FX

• DXY mildly softened as yields softened amid a pullback in oil and with money market pricing heavily leaning towards the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, while participants also continue to count down the days to the US midterm election in just over a week. Nonetheless, focus remained on geopolitical headlines with President Trump stating it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Iran or resume attacks, while he also touted a potential trade/tariff deal with Canada.
• EUR/USD gained slightly, with the single currency back above the 1.1200 level after France was spared from a ratings downgrade by Moody's and largely averted a repeat of the large-scale violence and looting during mass protests on Saturday, while the latest ECB rate decision is also scheduled later in the week.
• GBP/USD kept afloat heading into this week's Budget announcement, with Chancellor Healey expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by 3.9%, while it was also reported that PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules, which he called for an 'honest discussion' on.
• USD/JPY was choppy in the absence of tier-1 data releases and fresh pertinent drivers, while the BoJ is widely expected to pause at its rate decision later this week.
• Antipodeans were contained in range-bound trade amid the overall mixed risk appetite.
• PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7162 vs exp. 6.6691 (prev. 6.7180).
• Brazil's Electoral Authority confirmed that Brazil's Lula was re-elected president in the runoff vote, while Bolsonaro said extending voting hours was unacceptable, and it is impossible to acknowledge election results. Furthermore, Bolsonaro said they will ask that the election be annulled.
• Serbia's leader Vucic conceded defeat in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures edged higher as oil prices pulled back from recent extremes, but with the upside capped as participants await several central bank rate decisions this week, including from the FOMC.
• Bund futures mildly gained as a retreat in energy prices eased some inflationary pressures, while German Ifo data is scheduled today and the ECB will also decide on rates later this week.
• 10yr JGB futures lacked conviction in the absence of any tier-1 data releases and with the BoJ widely anticipated to pause on rates when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting on Friday.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures pulled back from last Friday's peak after surging amid the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical risks, while weekend headlines were mixed, as there were reports of fresh Saudi-Houthi strikes and an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet after it fired a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, US President Trump responded to questions from a reporter and stated there would not be a strike against Iran on Sunday, while he commented that US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon.
• US CENTCOM said it helped Gulf states export more than 1.5bln bbls of oil since the summer.
• Libya reopened the oil pipeline from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya. It was also reported that Libya's NOC reopened the Brega refinery following its closure for maintenance.
• United Arab Emirates closed additional beaches amid concerns over environmental and health impacts following an oil spill in the Persian Gulf.
• IEA chief Birol said he doesn't see any credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027.
• Spot gold reclaimed the USD 4,000/oz status as oil prices eased back, but with further upside in the precious metal contained as participants await this week's central bank announcements.
• Copper futures lacked demand amid the mostly subdued risk sentiment in Asia.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was mildly pressured with prices retreating beneath the USD 80,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's fifth plenum got underway, as scheduled, which is a closed-door convention involving officials from the Communist Party's Central Committee, while President Xi was reported to deliver the Work Report at the plenum, according to CCTV.
• RBA's Hunter said the central bank was “not quite yet” done fighting inflation, signalling that another rate hike was likely when policymakers meet early next month.
• Singapore PM Wong pledged further support for workers and households, while vowing to step up efforts to secure energy supplies and attract investment.

DATA RECAP

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon and that he believes both sides want a deal.
• US House Speaker Johnson said he spoke with President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio over the weekend, adding that he had been told the US was planning trilateral negotiations.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US, Russia and Ukraine plan trilateral technical talks in November, while he stated that Kyiv will not trade anything in exchange but is willing to hold talks and that territorial issues must be handled at the leaders' level, although other matters can be handled by technical working groups.
• Ukrainian drones targeted an industrial zone in Russia's Omsk.
• Ukraine said restrictions on the speed of its SpaceX (SPCX) Starlink terminal connections had been lifted during overnight testing.
• Ukrainian home improvement major retailer Epicentr said its business had been “destroyed” by a rapid succession of Russian airstrikes on its distribution centres.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck a dry cargo ship in the Black Sea that was en route to Ukraine's port of Odesa.

OTHER

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China for the second time in just over a year, ahead of US President Trump's planned trip to the region next month.
• North Korea sent a letter to the UN Security Council saying South Korea fabricated mine explosion incidents to delay and impede North Korea's border fortification, while it stated South Korea's provocation, such as opening fire on North Korean service personnel, is a violation of the UN Charter, according to KCNA.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules, according to The Sunday Times. It was separately reported that Burnham called for an 'honest discussion' on the free movement of people, which has sparked a furious debate over Britain readopting EU free movement rules, but rejected the idea that the UK could join the euro or the passport-free Schengen travel area, according to FT.
• UK PM's office said the UK is to spend an additional GBP 432mln to help curb homelessness.
• UK Chancellor Healey will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax, according to The Times. Furthermore, Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by GBP 489 to GBP 13,036, and that will be equivalent to a 3.9% rise.
• UK Chancellor Healey will use the upcoming budget to give mayors in England additional funding and powers, including a GBP 1.5bln borrowing facility, as part of plans to shift economic decision-making away from Westminster.
• UK pledged GBP 100mln for an AI Biosecurity Lab supported by OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind, as part of efforts to improve the government's ability to understand and address risks posed by the technology.
• Protests against the war and rising living costs took place in major Italian cities on Saturday, with some incidents of violence following recent unrest across the country.
• France avoided a repeat of large-scale violence and looting during Saturday's protests, which involved around 110K people in a largely peaceful demonstration confined to the outskirts of Paris and another 300K nationwide. The CGT union put the total at 800K. However, isolated clashes were reported in several cities, with police using tear gas and water cannons.
• France's National Rally reelected Bardella as party president in Orléans on Saturday with 98.98% of the vote, with no opposing candidate, while National Rally's Le Pen vowed a national ‘renewal’ in a campaign launch.
• Moody's maintained France's credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks, while Scope reaffirmed Italy's rating at BBB+ with a Positive Outlook.