Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 2nd September 2026

• US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.
• IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain while the IRGC added that two tankers were blown up after striking mines in the Strait.
• Global equities continue to pull back, with NQ futures falling below 29k.
• USD firms against most peers; NZD underperforms after RBNZ fails to impress hawks, JPY outperforms after BoJ hawk Takata.
• USTs are flat, whilst Bunds and Gilts are pressured by elevated gas prices.
• Crude takes a breather following another night of US-Iran hostilities; metals feel no reprieve.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from Fed's Williams, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.2%	DAX40	-0.4%
Stoxx 600	-0.3%	FTSE 100	-0.5%
ES Sep'26	-0.2%	RTY Sep'26	-0.1%
NQ Sep'26	-0.4%	YM Sep'26	-0.1%

FX
DXY	+0.1% (99.74)	EUR/USD	-0.1% (1.1580)
USD/JPY	-0.3% (159.74)	GBP/USD	U/C (1.3511)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-1 tick	Bund Sep'26	-52 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.804%	German 10yr Yield	3.386%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Oct'26	+0.3%	Brent Nov'26	+0.4%
Spot Gold	-0.2%	LME Copper	-0.9%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.8%	Ethereum	-1.0%

As of 10:15BST / 05:15EDT

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses trade lower again on Wednesday, as the US and Iran exchange strikes for a second consecutive night. US CENTCOM said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets, while Iran's IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq and launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain.
• Sectors have a slight negative tilt. Banks top the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Telecoms rounding out the sector outperformers. To the downside is Autos, followed by Media and Retail.
• An update from STOXX is lifting Nokia (+1.0%) this morning, after announcing that the Finnish telecom giant, alongside Engie (-0.3%), will join the Euro Stoxx 50. This will be effective September 21st, replacing Volkswagen (-2.7%) and Wolters Kluwer (-2.7%) in Europe's blue chip index.
• US equity futures are slightly lower this morning, following the negative bias seen in Europe. Shares of Dell (+9%) are surging pre-market after the Co. beat quarterly estimates and sharply raised its FY outlook. This is also supporting HPE, who are expected to report earnings after-hours.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• Mixed action in FX today with G10s continuing the bias seen throughout the week, USD is stronger against most peers as yields fail to moderate, NZD to the greatest extent but JPY outperforming (USD/JPY -0.4%).
• JPY is stronger in all major crosses with performance pronounced in EUR/JPY after pressure in the early European morning. The cross fell to a 184.55 base before paring some of the move back above the 21 and 59 DMA. No specific headline driver but known hawk Takata implied that the BoJ could possibly hike 50bps in September or deliver back-to-back hikes “need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time”. However, it is worth putting these remarks in the context of Takata being a hawkish dissenter and him wanting a policy rate of 2.00% at a rapid pace; such an outcome would be unlikely to sway the rest of the board. On top of this, Governor Ueda provided some remarks overnight. He more-or-less provided two-way commentary, and ultimately did not dissuade market bets of a hike in September.
• RBNZ failed to impress hawkish expectations in its policy meeting where the OCR was raised by 25bps to 2.75% as expected. While flagging further tightening, the bank highlighted downside risks to the economy and rate projections showed less expected tightening than markets expect, with the OCR projection for December 2026 seen at 2.81% (OIS Implied Rate: 2.99%), September 2027 at 3.12% (OIS Implied Rate: 3.48%) and December 2027 3.15% (OIS Implied Rate 3.75%). As such, NZD was pressured against all G10 currencies, NZD/USD -1.1% to a 0.5825 base just below the 50DMA and will likely look to the 13th August low @0.5821, NZD could remain offered in this dim risk environment, especially if market pricing narrows compared to MPC rate projections.
• AUD was lifted after stronger-than-expected Australian GDP data, albeit remains weaker against the stronger Buck. AUD/NZD +1% testing the 1.2258 June high at the time of writing.

FIXED INCOME

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning. USTs (-1 tick) are mildly pressured, whilst Bunds (-52 ticks) and Gilts (-60 ticks) extend on recent pressure. Whilst USTs appear to be taking a breather following the recent downside, Bunds and Gilts continue to be subject to hefty selling, amidst higher energy prices and ongoing fears surrounding fiscal/debt sustainability.
• USTs currently hold within a 107-09 to 107-14 range. For the short-end, focus will no doubt be on key domestic data which will help decide between whether the Fed opts to hold or hike at its September meeting. The US Jobs Report is due this Friday, and the CPI late next week; a hot report on both fronts will likely see money markets extend their bets of a hike this month (currently seen at 68%).
• The US yield curve is ever-so-slightly steeper this morning. The US10yr (4.80%) remains at elevated levels, with focus on whether it can move towards the 5.00% mark. That would likely require a significant escalation on the geopolitical front and/or hawkish NFP/CPI reports to cement a September move. Even if that does not come to fruition, the 10yr may remain above the 4.75% mark until the geopolitical situation materially improves.
• Bunds and Gilts are ultimately pressured by elevated European gas prices, which are the highest in three years. There has been a lack of material newsflow dictating price action this morning, with only ECB’s Makhlouf and Nagel on the wires. The former said that the ECB should be ready to lift rates further, adding that inflation and growth metrics make him “uneasy”.
• For Gilts, the first PMQs under PM Burnham draws focus, for potential updates on the cost of living, fiscal space and other key themes.
• Australia sells AUD 900mln in 1.25% May 2032 bonds: b/c 4.21x, avg. yield 4.8949%.

COMMODITIES

• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are flat/subdued following the prior day’s ~5% rise. WTI resides towards the bottom of a USD 89.92-92.29/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 86.13-90.97/bbl band), while Brent sits towards the lower end of a USD 94.53-97.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 90.70-95.45/bbl range). Aside from geopolitics (summarised below), data from the API also showed that US crude inventories reportedly drew down by 2.6mln bbls in the latest week (exp. -0.8mln), which would mark the first decline in five weeks.
• Dutch TTF remains elevated as Europe continues stockpiling for winter against the backdrop of supply issues from the Middle East, with the front-month contract towards the lower end of a EUR 73.20-75.33/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 69.69-74.40/MWh band). European gas storage is said to be about 65% full, the lowest seasonal level in records dating to 2009.
• Metals feel no reprieve from the subdued intraday oil prices, which remain at elevated levels, whilst DXY also holds an upward bias. Gold has extended its decline as higher oil prices, bond yields and inflation concerns lifted Fed tightening bets. Spot gold is off lows as oil eases but remains under its 100 DMA (USD 4,361/oz) in a USD 4,283-4,336/oz range at the time of writing. Copper falls for a second day as higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions raised global growth concerns. 3M LME copper remains above 14k/t in a current USD 14,098.55-14,226.00/t range.
• In geopolitics, US-Iran tensions escalated sharply after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes on around 100 Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against US bases across various regions. On diplomacy this morning, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry remains positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table. More recently, Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz - although this prompted no reaction at the time of writing.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.6mln (exp. -0.8mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -2.4mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.2mln.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said 17mln bbls of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
• Russia reportedly suspended grain export duties through 2026, RIA reported.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said at the G20 press conference that the days of settling for sub-par growth are over and he had hoped to announce a unanimous joint communique, although all but China reached a consensus. Furthermore, he said it is unsustainable to have a non-market economy export surge and that it is clear China was the dissenter at G20.
• G20 Chair statement was issued after China opposed joint communique language on trade policy, while the statement noted that the global economy remained resilient in the face of multiple shocks, including ongoing wars and conflicts, while the G20 is concerned by continued disruptions to energy trade and stress-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It also stated that advancing growth is a key priority across G20 economies and working to address impediments to growth, including regulatory and administrative burdens, while G20 finance leaders urged countries to avoid unnecessary export restrictions to ensure supply chains function normally.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• Spanish Unemployment Change (Aug) 44.419K vs. Exp. 15.4K (Prev. 19.517K).

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ Governor Ueda said he discussed with central banks the need to communicate for appropriate monetary policy to achieve price stability as the global environment changes, while he said he held talks with Bessent, but did not comment on the details of their meeting and stated they held productive discussions on various topics. Ueda also refrained from commenting on day-to-day market moves or on markets pricing a strong chance of a September rate hike, although he stated that data released since the July meeting has been broadly in line with the projections in the quarterly report and that their basic monetary policy stance is largely unchanged from July. Furthermore, he said monetary conditions remain accommodative, so we would like to continue increasing rates, and stated that they have raised the policy rate five times so far, so need to carefully assess how the cumulative impact could affect the economy, but will also take upside price risks into account when deliberating policy.
• BoJ's Takata (hawkish dissenter) said he believes the BoJ needs to conduct rate hikes nimbly after gauging the degree of accommodation in domestic financial conditions, in addition to examining developments overseas. Takata also commented on the need to take a flexible approach to policy and that Middle East pressures could push inflation above target. Takata later stated that they need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time while a different response is needed from the normal semi-annual pace of tightening.
• RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected, with the MPC reaching a consensus on the decision, while the Committee judged that gradually removing monetary stimulus is appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target mid-point while supporting growth and employment. RBNZ said the decision reduces the risk that the OCR needs to increase by more later and that future policy decisions will depend on the Committee’s judgement of the balance of risks to medium-term inflation. In terms of the projections, the OCR is seen at 2.81% in December 2026 (prev. 2.84%), 3.12% in September 2027 (prev. 3.11%), 3.15% in December 2027 (prev. 3.15%) and at 3.28% in September 2029. RBNZ Minutes stated that the future OCR path is not pre-determined and indicators of medium-term inflation are consistent with inflation returning to the target.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said she expects economic growth to strengthen and broaden, while she noted that OCR projections are relatively in line with prior forecasts and that they are moving the OCR up towards neutral and it is still accommodative, but noted uncertainty regarding the neutral rate. Furthermore, she said they may need to take some time to assess the stance of policy and are not on a preset course, with the rate hike timing highly uncertain, although stated there will likely be a further OCR increase and will assess the impact of hikes already done.
• ECB's Makhlouf said the central bank must be prepared to lift interest rates further and that the combination of eurozone inflation above 3% and robust growth makes him uneasy, according to FT.
• ECB's Nagel said that markets see a more than 95% chance of a September rate hike and that markets understand rather well the ECB's way of reacting.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk, according to WSJ.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
• US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
• US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
• Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
• Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
• IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
• Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russian President Putin said Russia has blocked a large enemy force in eastern Ukraine and keeps striking Ukrainian ports and energy facilities, while it is preparing massive strikes on Ukraine's energy targets. Putin also commented that Ukrainian President Zelensky's threat to close Russian airspace is state terrorism and that Moscow will respond, as well as noted that Ukrainian strikes caused real damage, but it is not critical. Furthermore, he said rumours that Russia is planning a new mobilisation to expand the army for Ukraine are utter nonsense.
• Russia attacked Ukraine's Odessa and damaged infrastructure, according to an official.
• Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Medvedev said "Germany deserves a direct strike on military equipment production for Kyiv", RIA reported.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to pull back from Friday's peak but remains comfortably above the USD 76k handle.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were pressured as the risk-off mood persisted following a surge in oil prices and upside in yields, triggered by the latest exchange of US-Iran strikes, while President Trump warned that the "biggest attack of them all... is waiting in the wings" and that there will be very little left of Iran.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and tech stocks, while better-than-expected GDP data was overshadowed by the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
• Nikkei 225 fell amid pressure from mining and tech, while there were comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who called on Japan to stop reflation and shift from Abenomics to Takaichi-nomics.
• KOSPI led the declines in the region with tech stocks hit alongside the higher yield environment.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood amid weakness in some auto names following monthly sales updates and with the mainland not helped after the PBoC's open market operations amount was at zero.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he emphasised the importance of sound formulation and communication of monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations in a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda. Furthermore, he expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen, while he noted the role of yen weakness in contributing to domestic inflationary pressures in Japan.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Japan should stop the reflation now and that Abenomics is done, stating that Abenomics has worked and it is time for Takaichi-nomics. Bessent also commented that Japan is one of the most vibrant economies of the world now and that it succeeded in reflating, but now needs to shift.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Australian GDP Growth Rate QQ (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Australian GDP Growth Rate YY (Q2) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.5%).
• South Korean CPI (Aug YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.8%).
• South Korean CPI (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%).