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NY Fed SCE (Dec): 1yr inflation expectations 3.42% (prev. 3.2%); 3yr 3.0% (prev. 3.0%), 5yr 3.0% (prev. 3.0%)

The NY Fed's SCE for December indicates a rise in 1-year inflation expectations to 3.42%, reflecting heightened concerns about future price pressures compared to the previous month.

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NY Fed SCE (Dec): 1yr inflation expectations 3.42% (prev. 3.2%); 3yr 3.0% (prev. 3.0%), 5yr 3.0% (prev. 3.0%)

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  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2 ppts to 43.1%, reaching a new series low. The decline was driven by respondents with annual household incomes below USD 100,000 and was most pronounced for those above age 60 and those with a high school degree or less.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 1.4 ppts to 15.2%. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.3%.
  • The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months decreased by 0.2 ppt to 17.5%.
  • Households’ perceptions about their current financial situation compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share reporting a better financial situation.
  • Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation improved as well.
Context

Additionally, declining job security perceptions, especially among lower-income and older respondents, could affect consumer sentiment and spending. This evolving outlook on job security and inflation suggests a more cautious stance for monetary policy moving forward, impacting rate expectations and risk assets.

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