Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were said to have climbed to around 7mln-8mln bpd from around 4mln barrels per day in mid-July, easing some global supply concerns

Throughput recoveries of this kind after a conflict-driven disruption have historically been the single largest swing factor in the crude balance, and the usual sequence is that transit normalises well before upstream capacity does, meaning the first barrels back are typically inventory draws and shuttle cargoes rather than fresh production. The distinction worth drawing is between restored export logistics and restored supply: Kuwaiti and Qatari shipments at a partial share of pre-conflict levels implies fields and infrastructure are still ramping, and past episodes of this kind have seen the final third of restoration take considerably longer than the first. The transmission channel runs through prompt timespreads and freight first, with war-risk insurance premia and tanker rates in the Gulf tending to lag the headline flow numbers, so the shape of the curve and freight quotes are the cleaner tell than flat price alone. Partial restoration also leaves the market short of the volumes embedded in pre-disruption balances, which is where the residual risk premium has tended to sit until shipments are fully confirmed as sustained rather than shuttle-assisted. Worth noting is the phrasing: flow estimates sourced this way have on previous occasions been revised, and sustained multi-week confirmation has mattered more than any single snapshot. As supply-side news in an easing direction, the precedent is that it pressures the front of the curve and narrows backwardation rather than repricing the long end.