OPEC MOMR (Mar): 2026 world oil demand forecast remains at 1.4mln BPD (unchanged from the Feb MOMR), 2027 world oil demand forecast remains at 1.3mln BPD (unchanged from the Feb MOMR)

• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at a healthy 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d.

• Ongoing geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, although their impact, if any, on the growth forecast may be too early to determine.

The OPEC report indicates stable growth forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 and 2027, holding at 1.4 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d respectively. This consistency suggests that market expectations are being maintained, potentially influencing oil price stability, as supply growth also remains steady. However, ongoing geopolitical developments could pose risks to these forecasts, warranting close attention from traders.