RBNZ Governor Breman says OCR trajectory is aligned with the anticipated evolution of the economy, adds OCR track indicates there is a possibility of a hike towards the end of the year but noted Q4 hike is not fully priced in to the OCR track

• Want to keep OCR on hold while the economy recovers.
• Not planning to hike until we see a stronger economy and more inflationary pressure.
• Expects to continue to shrink the balance sheet.

Governor Breman's comments suggest a cautious approach from the RBNZ, indicating that while a hike may be on the table towards year-end, the lack of full pricing in implies uncertainty. His intention to maintain the OCR on hold until economic conditions improve points to a dovish stance, with potential implications for NZD and fixed income as markets assess when a rate hike could materialize.