Russia’s Deputy PM says Novak Russia starts lifting diesel export restrictions immediately, Tass reports; Exports set to increase further in November and December as refineries return to operation following maintenance

Russian export curbs on diesel and gasoline have been a recurring tool in this cycle, imposed when domestic prices and shortages pressure the government ahead of politically sensitive periods, and lifted once refinery maintenance season ends and domestic supply stabilises. Past episodes of these restrictions being unwound have tended to ease pressure on European and global diesel cracks, since Russian barrels have remained a meaningful share of seaborne supply despite sanctions rerouting flows toward Turkey, Brazil and the Middle East. The mechanism here is straightforward: returning refinery runs add product to a market whose middle distillate balances have periodically been tight, and the transmission runs through diesel crack spreads and prompt timespreads rather than crude outright. The offer of additional volumes to US partners is more political signal than near-term cargo reality, given the existing sanctions architecture constrains direct flows. The tells to watch are actual loadings data in the coming weeks rather than ministry statements, since prior easing announcements have occasionally preceded slower physical follow-through, and whether the 3 million tons per month figure materialises against maintenance schedules. The November and December export trajectory will show whether this is a genuine supply normalisation or a headline ahead of the barrels.