SNB Chairman Schlegel (post-policy statement) says the SNB is also willing to be active in the FX market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions

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SNB Chairman Schlegel (post-policy statement) says the SNB is also willing to be active in the FX market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions

BoE's Lombardelli says policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist

German Ifo Expectations (Sep) 90.4 vs. Exp. 89.3 (Prev. 89.1)

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  • Inflation has risen further since June, primarily due to higher energy prices.
  • Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
  • Our monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development.
  • Inflation rose slightly, from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August, due to a rise in goods inflation. The rise in goods inflation was mainly driven by higher prices for oil products.
  • Inflation is to decline over the course of 2027 due to the fact that energy inflation, which is currently significantly elevated, is likely to decline again in the coming quarters.
Context

The SNB occupies an unusual position among major central banks in that direct FX intervention is an established, openly declared policy instrument rather than an emergency measure, and the bank has used it in both directions over past cycles, accumulating reserves to resist franc strength in disinflationary periods and unwinding them when imported inflation was the concern. Verbal readiness of this kind from the Chairman is typically the first rung of the ladder: episodes of this sort have historically sequenced from jawboning, to sight deposit growth confirming actual purchases or sales, to any rate response, with the weekly sight deposit data serving as the tell on whether words have become action. The context here cuts both ways: with inflation low and driven mainly by energy, a stronger franc tightens conditions through import prices, so the intervention signal is the standard tool for resisting unwanted appreciation rather than a precursor to deeper easing. The distinction worth drawing is between smoothing volatility and targeting a level: the former is routine and passes quickly, the latter has in the past committed the balance sheet for extended periods. The follow-ons are the sight deposit prints, the tone of any subsequent Chairman remarks, and whether the franc tests levels where the SNB has previously shown its hand.

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