US Midterms: Senate, Governor and PUC indicative timings
Newsquawk Staff ·
US Senate
Senate control
| Market | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Senate control – Kalshi | 76% | 26% |
| Senate control – Polymarket | 76% | 24% |
| Balance of power (Polymarket) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Democratic sweep (Senate + House) | 76% |
| R Senate / D House | 18% |
| Republican sweep | 6% |
| D Senate / R House | 1% |
- Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats (to 51). Since 29 Oct, Democrats' Senate odds are up from 68% to 76% on Polymarket.
Senate control – sector read
| Outcome (Polymarket odds) | Positive | Negative |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic sweep (76%) | Managed care & hospitals (UNH, ELV, CNC, MOH, HCA); staples & discount retail (WMT, DG, DLTR, KR); renewables (FSLR, NEE) | AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX); crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); USD and yields lower |
| R Senate / D House (18%) | Tech/AI (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO); data-centre REITs (DLR, EQIX); USD | Crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); shutdown and debt-ceiling risk |
| Republican sweep (6%) | Defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, PLTR); oil & gas (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); crypto; AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); nuclear & gas power (CEG, VST, GEV) | Hospitals & Medicaid plans (HCA, UHS, CNC, MOH); renewables (FSLR, NEE); long-end Treasuries |
Exit polls & first calls
| GMT | EST | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| 22:00 Tue | 17:00 | Embargo lifts on the first national voter intention polls |
| 22:45 Tue | 17:45 | ABC expected to post its first Voter Poll data |
| 23:00 Tue | 18:00 | First polls close (Kentucky, Indiana) |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | GA, SC, VT, VA close; some early calls possible at this stage |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | National Voter Poll results released |
- Reminder, it can take several days for overall control to be called.
State by state (bold = races to watch)
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | State | Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) | 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 Tue / 00:00 | 18:00 / 19:00 | Kentucky | Barr (R) 97 / 97 · Booker (D) 3 / 3 | 23:05 Tue / 01:15 / 02:30 | 18:05 / 20:15 / 21:30 | Very fast. Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. | – |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia | Ossoff (D) 97 / 97 · Collins (R) 3 / 3 | 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) | 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) | Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. | D hold priced. GA data-centre risk sits with the governor/PSC, not this seat. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | South Carolina | Graham (R) 68 / 70 · Andrews (D) 32 / 32 | 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 | 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 | Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. | D upset: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: priced. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Virginia | Warner (D) 99 / 99 · Mizusawa (R) 1 / 1 | 00:10 / – / >99% 06:52 (2025 race) | 19:10 / – / >99% 01:52 Wed | Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until noon Fri 6 Nov. | – |
| 00:00 / 01:00 | 19:00 / 20:00 | Florida (special) | Moody (R) 84 / 86 · Nixon (D) 16 / 15 | 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 | 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 | Fastest count in the country. Machine recount at 0.5%, hand recount at 0.25%. | D upset: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, HUM, CNC, MOH). |
| 00:00 – 01:00 | 19:00 – 20:00 | New Hampshire | Pappas (D) 93 / 94 · Sununu (R) 7 / 6 | – / 03:12 / 06:42 | – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed | Towns close at 19:00, 19:30 or 20:00 EST. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST (its 2022 practice). | D hold priced. R upset: +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | North Carolina | Cooper (D) 97 / 98 · Whatley (R) 3 / 2 | 00:35 / 02:17 / 04:36 | 19:35 / 21:17 / 23:36 | Most mail votes in first update. No grace period for late mail. | D flip priced. R upset: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | Ohio (special) | Brown (D) 72 / 72 · Husted (R) 29 / 29 | 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 | 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 | Mail ballots must arrive by poll close (new law). Automatic recount at ≤0.25%. | D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto; −OH data-centre names (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). R hold: +tech, +USD. |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | West Virginia | Capito (R) 99 / 99 · Fetty Anderson (D) 1 / 1 | 00:41 / 01:53 / 04:00 | 19:41 / 20:53 / 23:00 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama | Moore (R) 98 / 98 · Wess (D) 2 / 2 | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Delaware | Coons (D) 99 / 99 · Katz (R) 1 / 1 | 01:29 / 01:59 / 02:57 | 20:29 / 20:59 / 21:57 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Illinois | Stratton (D) 99 / 99 · Tracy (R) 1 / 1 | 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 | 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed | Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until 19 Nov. | Big D margin: Medicare-for-All momentum → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maine | Jackson (D) 72 / 74 · Collins (R) 28 / 26 | 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 | 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed | Slow. Ranked-choice counting likely (write-in candidates are on the ballot): if no one tops 50%, the final result is likely next week. | D win: −managed care/PBMs (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R hold: +defence funding (GD). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Massachusetts | Markey (D) 99 / 99 · Deaton (R) 1 / 1 | 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 | 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed | Mail ballots accepted until Fri 6 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) 86 / 86 · Colom (D) 15 / 14 | 01:19 / 03:06 / not until 8 Nov | 20:19 / 22:06 / not until 8 Nov | Mail ballots accepted up to 5 business days after Election Day. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | New Jersey | Booker (D) 98 / 99 · Murphy (R) 2 / 1 | 01:01 / 02:06 / 04:54 | 20:01 / 21:06 / 23:54 | Mail ballots accepted until 9 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma | Hern (R) 98 / 99 · Thomas (D) 2 / 1 | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Rhode Island | Reed (D) – / 99 · McKay (R) – / 1 | 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 | 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed | Mail votes come later in the night. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Tennessee | Hagerty (R) 98 / 98 · Bradshaw (D) 2 / 2 | 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 | 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 | Fast. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Kansas | Hamilton (D) 64 / 62 · Marshall (R) 37 / 36 | 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 | 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed | 3-day mail grace period applies (a court blocked the law ending it). | D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Michigan | El-Sayed (D) 80 / 80 · Rogers (R) 20 / 20 | 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 | 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed | AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Detroit and the other big counties report little early; Detroit aims to finish by about 09:00 GMT / 04:00 EST. | D hold: single-payer signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R flip: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota | Rounds (R) 94 / 95 · Bengs (I) 6 / 6 | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | State law bars any results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Slow. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Texas | Talarico (D) 74 / 74 · Paxton (R) 26 / 26 | 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 | 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed | About two-thirds of the vote (early and absentee) lands in the first update. Bexar County holds its early votes until lines clear. Mail ballots accepted until 17:00 local, Wed 4 Nov. | D win: −AI/data centres (GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, DLR, EQIX), −TX power (VST, NRG, CNP). R hold: +AI/data centres. |
| 01:30 | 20:30 | Arkansas | Cotton (R) 98 / 98 · Shoffner (D) 2 / 2 | 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 | 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 | Fast. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Colorado | Hickenlooper (D) 99 / 99 · Baisley (R) 1 / 1 | 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov | 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov | All-mail state, so a long tail. Recount at ≤0.5%. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Iowa | Turek (D) 52 / 52 · Hinson (R) 48 / 46 | 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 | 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed | Absentee votes in first update at most counties. | D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana | Letlow (R) 88 / 88 · Davis (D) 13 / 12 | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | Fast. | Little read-across; the Meta/Entergy decision sits with the PSC. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Minnesota | Flanagan (D) 91 / 92 · Tafoya (R) 9 / 8 | 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 | 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed | All vote types released together. | D hold: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska | Ricketts (R) 66 / 68 · Osborn (I) 32 / 32 | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | Early votes first; Omaha and Lincoln release few Election Day votes early. Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. Osborn says he won't caucus with either party. | I win: Senate control could hinge on Osborn's caucus choice. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New Mexico | Luján (D) 98 / 99 · Marker (R) 2 / 1 | 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 | 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed | Automatic recount if margin <0.25%. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wyoming | Hageman (R) 99 / 99 · Byrd (D) 1 / 1 | 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 | 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed | Automatic recount if margin <1%. | – |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Montana | Alme (R) 90 / 90 · Bodnar (I) 11 / 9 · Bankhead (D) 1 / 0 | 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 | 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed | Counties may hold first results until lines clear. Four-way race. | I win: caucus question for Bodnar. |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Idaho | Risch (R) 96 / 97 · Achilles (I) 4 / 3 | 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 | 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed | – | – |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Oregon | Merkley (D) 99 / 99 · Smith (R) 1 / 1 | 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov | 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov | All-mail; ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted for 7 days. | – |
| 05:00 / 06:00 | 00:00 / 01:00 Wed | Alaska | Peltola (D) 70 / 72 · Sullivan (R) 30 / 29 | 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 | 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed | Most mail votes come in later days. Ranked-choice count on 18 Nov, certification target 25 Nov. A Justice Department suit seeks to block certification if Peltola wins. | D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. Slow count delays clarity. |
US Governor & Utility Commission races
Governors
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | State | Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) | 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia | Bottoms (D) 72 / 72 · Jackson (R) 29 / 28 | 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) | 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) | Open seat; markets have swung to Bottoms. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. | D win: statewide data-centre freeze → −DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL; −SO. R win: local consent only, neutral. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | South Carolina | Wilson (R) 95 / 95 · Johnson (D) 6 / 5 | 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 | 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 | Safe R. | – |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Vermont | Scott (R) 66 / 68 · Janoo (D) 32 / 31 | 00:12 / 01:48 / 03:44 | 19:12 / 20:48 / 22:44 | Rated likely R, but markets price Janoo at about 1 in 3, tighter than the ratings. | – |
| 00:00 / 01:00 | 19:00 / 20:00 | Florida | Donalds (R) 64 / 64 · Jolly (D) 36 / 36 | 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 | 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 | Open seat, lean R. Fastest count in the country. | – |
| 00:00 – 01:00 | 19:00 – 20:00 | New Hampshire | Ayotte (R) 86 / 85 · Warmington (D) 15 / 14 | – / 03:12 / 06:42 | – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed | Likely R. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST. | – |
| 00:30 | 19:30 | Ohio | Acton (D) 82 / 84 · Ramaswamy (R) 18 / 18 | 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 | 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 | Open seat, toss-up in ratings but markets favour Acton. Fast count; mail ballots must arrive by poll close. | Negative either way for data centres (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). D win: data centres pay full utility costs. R win: data centres must bring own power → +on-site gas (GEV). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama | Tuberville (R) 93 / 93 · Jones (D) 8 / 7 | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | Open seat, safe R. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Connecticut | Lamont (D) 98 / 98 · Fazio (R) 2 / 2 | 01:12 / 05:25 / 19:06 (date not stated) | 20:12 / 00:25 Wed / 14:06 (date not stated) | Safe D. Automatic recount if margin <0.5% and ≤2,000 votes. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Illinois | Pritzker (D) 98 / 99 · Bailey (R) 2 / 1 | 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 | 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed | Safe D. Late-arriving postmarked mail counted to 19 Nov. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maine | Pingree (D) 97 / 97 · Charles (R) 3 / 3 | 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 | 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed | Open seat, safe D. Slow count. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Maryland | Moore (D) 99 / 99 | 01:22 / 02:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 07:00) | 20:22 / 21:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 02:00 Wed) | Safe D. Long mail tail. Also on ballot: Question 3 on mid-decade congressional redistricting. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Massachusetts | Healey (D) 98 / 98 · Minogue (R) 2 / 2 | 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 | 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed | Safe D. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma | Mazzei (R) 90 / 89 · Munson (D) 11 / 10 | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | Open seat, likely R. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Pennsylvania | Shapiro (D) 99 / 99 | 01:00 / 03:12 / 05:48 | 20:00 / 22:12 / 00:48 Wed | Safe D, but a key data-centre state. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | D hold: data centres proceed with conditions, neutral. R upset: data-centre pause → −AMZN, −CEG, PPL, EXC, EQT. |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Rhode Island | Foulkes (D) 98 / 98 · Block (I) 2 / – | 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 | 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed | Open seat, safe D; independent Ken Block on ballot. | – |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Tennessee | Blackburn (R) 94 / 94 · Green (D) 6 / 5 | 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 | 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 | Open seat, safe R. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Kansas | Masterson (R) 66 / 66 · Holscher (D) 36 / 36 | 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 | 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed | D-held open seat; markets favour Masterson (R pickup). 3-day mail grace period applies. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Michigan | Benson (D) 95 / 95 · James (R) 6 / 5 | 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 | 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed | Open seat, lean D. AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Big counties report late. | D win: data-centre moratorium → −ORCL; −CMS, DTE growth. R upset: local control, more data-centre friendly. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota | Rhoden (R) 98 / 98 · Ahlers (D) 2 / 2 | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | Safe R. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. | – |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | Texas | Abbott (R) 60 / 62 · Hinojosa (D) 40 / 38 | 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 | 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed | Lean R; the closest it has been in years. About two-thirds of the vote lands in the first update. | D win: data-centre moratorium → −GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL, DLR, EQIX; −VST, NRG, CNP. R win: existing pause stays, mildly negative. |
| 01:30 | 20:30 | Arkansas | Sanders (R) 98 / 98 · Love (D) 3 / 2 | 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 | 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 | Safe R. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Arizona | Hobbs (D) 92 / 94 · Biggs (R) 8 / 6 | 03:00 / 03:12 / only ~66% by 11:30 | 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed | Lean D. No results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. Slow; the 2022 race took AP 6 days to call. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. | Little direct; the data-centre lever is the Corporation Commission (PNW). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Colorado | Weiser (D) 98 / 98 · Marx (R) 2 / 3 | 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov | 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov | Open seat, safe D. All-mail, long tail. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Iowa | Sand (D) 88 / 88 · Lahn (R) 12 / 12 | 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 | 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed | R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Sand (D pickup). | Little direct; hosts MSFT, META, GOOGL data centres. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Minnesota | Klobuchar (D) 97 / 97 · Demuth (R) 3 / 3 | 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 | 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed | Open seat, safe D. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska | Pillen (R) 90 / 90 · Walz (D) 11 / 11 | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | Likely R. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New Mexico | Haaland (D) 95 / 95 · Hull (R) 5 / 5 | 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 | 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed | Open seat; solid D in ratings but flagged as one to watch. Automatic recount <0.25%. | Oil & gas: state-land drilling policy (OXY, EOG, DVN). |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | New York | Hochul (D) 96 / 96 · Blakeman (R) 4 / 4 | 02:01 / 02:55 / 04:46 | 21:01 / 21:55 / 23:46 | Safe D. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wisconsin | Crowley (D) 86 / 86 · Tiffany (R) 15 / 12 | 02:11 / 03:31 / 07:22 | 21:11 / 22:31 / 02:22 Wed | Open seat; toss-up in ratings, markets favour Crowley. Milwaukee counts late. Recount on request if margin <1 point. | D win: data centres must bring clean power → −MSFT, META, ORCL; +FSLR, NEE. R win: data-centre tax breaks repealed, coal kept. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Wyoming | Barlow (R) 99 / 99 | 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 | 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed | Open seat, safe R. | – |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Nevada | Ford (D) 74 / 76 · Lombardo (R) 24 / 24 | 05:54 / 06:02 / 01:26 Thu | 00:54 Wed / 01:02 Wed / 20:26 Wed | R-held; markets favour Ford. Slow: first results about 3 hours after close in 2024. Postmarked mail accepted for 4 days, with 6 days to fix signatures, so possibly next week. | D win: tax-break pause, cooling ban → −GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT builds. R win: supportive. |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Idaho | Little (R) 98 / 99 · Pickens (D) 2 / 1 | 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 | 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed | Safe R. | – |
| 03:00 / 04:00 | 22:00 / 23:00 | Oregon | Kotek (D) 84 / 84 · Drazan (R) 16 / 16 | 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov | 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov | Lean D. All-mail; postmarked ballots accepted for 7 days. | – |
| 04:00 | 23:00 | California | Becerra (D) 97 / 98 · Hilton (R) 3 / 2 | 04:12 / 05:56 / only ~62% by 09:24 | 23:12 / 00:56 Wed / ~62% by 04:24 Wed | Safe D (top-two). Counting takes weeks. Billionaire wealth-tax measure also on the ballot. | Wealth-tax ballot measure is a 2028 tax signal; no single-stock read. |
| 05:00 | 00:00 Wed | Hawaii | Green (D) 98 / 99 · Cordery (R) 3 / 1 | 10:07 / 10:08 / 16:11 | 05:07 Wed / 05:08 Wed / 11:11 Wed | Safe D. First results about 5 hours after close. | – |
| 05:00 / 06:00 | 00:00 / 01:00 Wed | Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 88 / 89 · Wilson (R) 12 / 11 | 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 | 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed | R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Kreiss-Tomkins. Ranked-choice with three Republicans; ranked-choice count 18 Nov. | – |
Territories: Guam governor Terlaje (D) 50 v Ada (R) 48 on Polymarket (no Kalshi market); no markets for the Northern Mariana Islands or US Virgin Islands.
Utility commissions (PUC)
| Polls close GMT | Polls close EST | Commission & seat | 2024 state pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) | 2024 state pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) | What to watch tonight | Sector / equity read-across |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia PSC, District 3: Hubbard (D, inc.) v Fitz Johnson (R) | 00:04 / – / 03:21 | 19:04 / – / 22:21 | Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). Democrats win both seats = 3–2 D flip. Elected statewide; Dec 1 runoff if under 50%. Rematch of 2025, when Hubbard won about 63%. | D sweep of both seats: D control → −SO capex, −GA data centres (DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL). R: status quo. |
| 00:00 | 19:00 | Georgia PSC, District 5 (open): Tolbert (R) v Edwards (D) v Blooming (L) | 00:04 / – / 03:21 | 19:04 / – / 22:21 | Control decided together with District 3. The Libertarian makes a Dec 1 runoff more likely. | Either way, more cost pushed onto data centres. |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Oklahoma Corporation Commission (open): Boles (R) v Eastman (D) | 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 | 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 | No control change possible (3–0 R). | R: continuity (AEP, DVN). |
| 01:00 | 20:00 | Alabama PSC, Places 1 & 2 (both open): Gentry (R) v Gordon (D); Zeigler (R) v McNeil (D) | 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 | 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 | No control change possible. Both Republican nominees beat incumbents by attacking Alabama Power rates. | Tougher on rates either way → −SO. |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | North Dakota PSC, 2 of 3 seats: Haugen-Hoffart (R, inc.) v Pederson (D); Kringstad (R, inc.) v Kelsh (D) | 01:25 / 03:35 / 05:00 | 20:25 / 22:35 / 00:00 Wed | Democratic control is a long shot in a deeply Republican state. Note: AP gives poll closes of 20:00 / 21:00 EST, earlier than the tracker's 22:00 / 23:00. | Sentiment gauge on power prices (XEL). |
| 01:00 / 02:00 | 20:00 / 21:00 | South Dakota PUC (open): Haggar (R) v Kloucek (D) | 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 | 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed | No control change possible. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana PSC, District 1 (open): Hilferty (R) v Norris (D) v Justin (no party) | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). A Norris win plus a Democratic hold in District 5 = 3–2 D flip. | D win (+ D hold in D5): D control → risk to the Entergy gas build for Meta: −ETR, META timing. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Louisiana PSC, District 5 (open): Green (D) v Atkins (R) | 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 | 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 | A Republican pickup = 4–1 R. This north Louisiana seat is the heart of the Meta/Entergy build. | R pickup: smooth path for the Entergy/Meta build → +ETR. |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Nebraska PSC, District 2 (open): McCann (R) v DeBoer (D) | 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 | 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed | No control change possible. | – |
| 02:00 | 21:00 | Arizona Corporation Commission, 2 seats (top two win): Thompson (R, inc.), Heap (R) v Hill (D), Pratte (D) | 03:00 / 03:12 / ~66% by 11:30 | 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed | No control change possible (5–0 R); best Democratic case is 3–2 R. No Arizona results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. | D wins: more data-centre cost/timing risk; the rate case drives PNW. |
| 03:00 | 22:00 | Montana PSC, Districts 1 (open) & 5: Pattison (R) v Cheek (D); Bukacek (R, inc.) v Hamm (D) | 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 | 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed | No control change possible (5–0 R). | – |
What it means
Election-night timing guides of this kind matter because the sequence of results, not the final tally, drives the overnight tape: the established pattern is that fast-counting states set the early narrative in index futures, the dollar and rates, while the genuine balance-of-power reads arrive later through slow-count states, mail tails and runoff or ranked-choice rules. The precedent across recent cycles is that control is rarely callable on the night itself, and episodes where markets traded a premature resolution have tended to retrace once outstanding-count composition became clear. The structural distinction worth drawing is between the federal outcome, which transmits through fiscal expectations, the curve and sector rotation, and the state-level governor and utility commission races, which transmit through a narrower but more concrete channel: siting, rate treatment and cost allocation for power-hungry buildouts, which lands directly on the utilities and the data-centre complex named in the read-across. Prediction-market probabilities embedded in these tables are prices, not forecasts, and have historically moved in steps on county-level reporting rather than smoothly. The tells through the session are the early closes in the eastern states against their prior-cycle count pace, whether the races flagged as control-deciding at commission level resolve cleanly or go to runoffs, and the gap between first calls and the slow western counts. A reminder embedded in the schedule itself, that overall control can take days, is the relevant prior form for how these nights resolve.
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