US Treasury Secretary Bessent says last night they took full control of Iranian skies; will take out Irans ballistic missiles and bunkers in coming days

  • Crude markets are well supplied.
  • There are 100s of millions of barrels on the water, away from the gulf.
  • Speaking on oil, says US will make a series of announcements.
  • Navy will step in provide assurance where needs be and US will provide insurance for ships in the Gulf (in fitting with announcement yesterday).
  • Asked about the SPR, says the market is very well supplied. US is in contacts with many across the world.
  • Situation is different to Russia/Ukraine.
  • Will reach out to ship owners and insurance brokers in the coming days.
  • US has naval and air dominance in the region.
  • Iran regime was "the head of the snake" they will get rid of that snake.
  • Trump has a vision here, and everyone should step back.
  • On Iran and currencies, says need to look to the other side of this.
  • Had been softening the Iranian economy to prepare for the campaign now.
  • China is very vulnerable on energy.
  • China has been paying a big discount on oil.
  • Says Spain has been terrible.
  • US is largest contributor to NATO, it was unacceptable that the Spanish were not helpful in regards to Spanish bases.
  • Spain put American lives at risk by not helping.

Trade

  • Tariff rate should move from 10% to 15% this week.
  • Tariff rates will be back to old rates after five months when Section 301 probes are done.
  • Will see more section 301 and 232 studies during the 5 months. 
Context

The statements from US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicate a significant escalation in the US stance toward Iran, with potential military action planned against its ballistic missile capabilities. This could lead to increased volatility across energy markets, particularly crude oil, as geopolitical tensions often impact supply dynamics. Markets should prepare for potential shifts in safe-haven assets like gold and fluctuations in currencies tied to perceived risk, such as the JPY and EUR, against the USD.

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