Airbus (AIR FP) Q3 2026 (EUR): EPS 1.70 (exp. 1.67), Revenue 17.47bln (exp. 17.91bln); Net income 1.34bln (exp. 1.30bln); Adj. EBIT 1.77bln (exp. 1.78bln); 2026 guidance unchanged

• Confirms monthly production rate targets for A220, A320, A330 and A350 programmes; cash outflow mainly driven by change in working capital, reflecting inventory build-up linked to back-end loaded deliveries and planned ramp-up

• EPS 4.54, Revenue 50.6bln; EBIT 4.6bln; Adj. EBIT 4.5bln; Adj. FCF -1.3bln; FY guidance: Adj. EBIT 7.5bln (exp. 7.64bln), Adj. FCF 4.5bln

Mixed prints of this kind, with earnings ahead on cost or tax lines but revenue light and margins broadly in line, have historically been secondary to the two variables that actually move Airbus shares: delivery trajectory and free cash flow conversion. The headline confirmation of rate targets across the narrowbody and widebody programmes is the substantive item; in past reporting cycles the stock has traded off any hint of slippage on ramp-up schedules, given the degree to which the equity case rests on execution against an already full order book rather than on demand. The negative adjusted free cash flow year to date, attributed to working capital build against back-end loaded deliveries, follows a familiar seasonal pattern for the group, and prior episodes have hinged on whether the fourth quarter delivery push clears the inventory without discounting or supply chain friction. The unchanged full-year guidance, with adjusted EBIT sitting marginally below consensus, sets up a modest beat-or-miss framing that typically resolves on the Q4 delivery count and any commentary on engine and aerostructure supply constraints. Worth noting is that guidance reaffirmation in this name has generally mattered more than the quarterly variance itself. The follow-ons are the monthly delivery tallies, any update on the A320 ramp and the cash phasing into year end.