[ANALYSIS] Iranian War – Day 7

OVERVIEW

• The war entered Day 7 with the heaviest strikes on Tehran so far, with residents describing the overnight bombardment as the “worst night” of the conflict.
• Israel expanded strikes on Tehran, Isfahan and Lebanon, including the destruction of an underground leadership bunker in central Tehran using around 50 fighter jets.
• US President Trump posted "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners"
• Iran launched further missile and drone attacks across the region, targeting Israel and multiple Gulf states, though many were intercepted.
• The US signalled a major escalation phase on Thursday, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warning that firepower over Iran will “surge dramatically.”
• Iranian missile and drone attacks appear to be declining significantly, with US officials reporting ballistic launches down ~90% and drone attacks down ~83% since Day 1.
• Maritime, aviation, and energy disruption across the Middle East continues, with major shipping services suspended and tens of thousands of flights cancelled.
• The US temporarily eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil already stranded at sea in order to stabilise global supply.

MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

Intensified Strikes on Tehran

• Israel conducted multiple waves of airstrikes overnight, targeting what it described as “regime infrastructure” in Tehran.
• Around 50 Israeli fighter jets struck an underground bunker complex in central Tehran built as an emergency command centre for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• The bunker, spanning several streets, was reportedly still being used by senior regime officials.
• BBC Verify confirmed visual evidence of strikes across more than 20 locations in Tehran and attacks in over 30 additional Iranian cities and towns.
• Residents reported continuous explosions and buildings shaking for several minutes during the overnight bombardment.

Expansion of the Lebanon Front

• Israel launched another broad wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut, particularly in the Dahieh suburb.
• The IDF says it has now conducted 26 waves of strikes on Beirut since operations there began.
• Lebanese authorities report 123 people killed and 683 injured in Lebanon since Monday.
• Israeli forces are reportedly taking hilltops inside southern Lebanon, suggesting preparation for a potential wider ground operation.

Iranian Retaliation

• Iran launched additional missile barrages toward Israel, triggering air raid alerts across the country.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed “True Promise 4” missile and drone operations continued against Israeli targets.

REGIONAL ESCALATION

Multiple Iranian attacks were reported across the Gulf overnight:

Saudi Arabia

• Intercepted ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, including strikes targeting the Prince Sultan Air Base and areas near Riyadh and Al-Kharj.

Qatar

• Intercepted a drone targeting Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the region.
• Residents received emergency alerts instructing them to avoid open areas.

UAE

• Intercepted 9 ballistic missiles and 109 drones in a single day.
• Three drones fell inside the country.
• Since the war began: 3 killed and 112 injured in UAE attacks.

Bahrain

• Iranian drones were intercepted over Manama, with debris reportedly damaging buildings, including a hotel.

NAVAL AND AIR DEVELOPMENTS

• The US reports it has sunk more than 30 Iranian ships since the conflict began.
• Earlier in the week a US submarine torpedoed the Iranian warship IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka, the first such submarine attack on a surface vessel since World War II.
• Sri Lanka is now assisting another Iranian vessel, IRIS Bushehr, after it reported engine failure, transferring around 200 Iranian sailors to shore.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with global shipping increasingly affected.

Shipping and Airspace disruption

• Global shipping giant Maersk suspended two major container routes: 1) Far East → Middle East (FM1), 2) Middle East → Europe (ME11)
• Qatar airspace remains closed, with Hamad International Airport handling stranded passengers.
• Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports continue operating with delays while passengers receive missile alerts.

POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS

US

• Defense Secretary Hegseth said US attacks will “surge dramatically” in the next phase.
• The US plans to expand strikes to defence industrial targets and missile production infrastructure.
• President Trump said sending ground troops into Iran would be “a waste of time.”
• Trump said Iran has “lost everything” militarily and suggested he may influence the selection of Iran’s next leader.

Iran

• Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed some countries have begun mediation efforts to end the war.
• Iran says it has not yet used its “new-generation” missile systems in the conflict.
• Iranian authorities arrested five alleged US-Israel spies in Tehran.
• Iran has now experienced six days of near-total internet blackout, with connectivity estimated at around 1% of normal levels.
• The blackout is significantly restricting independent reporting from inside the country.

Europe and NATO states

• European countries including Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands plan to send naval assets to help protect Cyprus.
• The UK is deploying four additional Typhoon jets to Qatar and Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to counter drones.
• A Royal Navy destroyer (HMS Dragon) is also heading toward the region.