[ANALYSIS] Iranian War – Day 7

OVERVIEW

The war entered Day 7 with the heaviest strikes on Tehran so far, with residents describing the overnight bombardment as the “worst night” of the conflict.
Israel expanded strikes on Tehran, Isfahan and Lebanon, including the destruction of an underground leadership bunker in central Tehran using around 50 fighter jets.
US President Trump posted "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners"
Iran launched further missile and drone attacks across the region, targeting Israel and multiple Gulf states, though many were intercepted.
The US signalled a major escalation phase on Thursday, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warning that firepower over Iran will “surge dramatically.”
Iranian missile and drone attacks appear to be declining significantly, with US officials reporting ballistic launches down ~90% and drone attacks down ~83% since Day 1.
Maritime, aviation, and energy disruption across the Middle East continues, with major shipping services suspended and tens of thousands of flights cancelled.
The US temporarily eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil already stranded at sea in order to stabilise global supply.

Intensified Strikes on Tehran

Israel conducted multiple waves of airstrikes overnight, targeting what it described as “regime infrastructure” in Tehran.
Around 50 Israeli fighter jets struck an underground bunker complex in central Tehran built as an emergency command centre for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The bunker, spanning several streets, was reportedly still being used by senior regime officials.
BBC Verify confirmed visual evidence of strikes across more than 20 locations in Tehran and attacks in over 30 additional Iranian cities and towns.
Residents reported continuous explosions and buildings shaking for several minutes during the overnight bombardment.

Expansion of the Lebanon Front

Israel launched another broad wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut, particularly in the Dahieh suburb.
The IDF says it has now conducted 26 waves of strikes on Beirut since operations there began.
Lebanese authorities report 123 people killed and 683 injured in Lebanon since Monday.
Israeli forces are reportedly taking hilltops inside southern Lebanon, suggesting preparation for a potential wider ground operation.

Iranian Retaliation

Iran launched additional missile barrages toward Israel, triggering air raid alerts across the country.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed “True Promise 4” missile and drone operations continued against Israeli targets.

Multiple Iranian attacks were reported across the Gulf overnight:

Saudi Arabia

Intercepted ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, including strikes targeting the Prince Sultan Air Base and areas near Riyadh and Al-Kharj.

Qatar

Intercepted a drone targeting Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the region.
Residents received emergency alerts instructing them to avoid open areas.

UAE

Bahrain

Iranian drones were intercepted over Manama, with debris reportedly damaging buildings, including a hotel.

The US reports it has sunk more than 30 Iranian ships since the conflict began.
Earlier in the week a US submarine torpedoed the Iranian warship IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka, the first such submarine attack on a surface vessel since World War II.
Sri Lanka is now assisting another Iranian vessel, IRIS Bushehr, after it reported engine failure, transferring around 200 Iranian sailors to shore.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with global shipping increasingly affected.

Global shipping giant Maersk suspended two major container routes: 1) Far East → Middle East (FM1), 2) Middle East → Europe (ME11)
Qatar airspace remains closed, with Hamad International Airport handling stranded passengers.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports continue operating with delays while passengers receive missile alerts.

Defense Secretary Hegseth said US attacks will “surge dramatically” in the next phase.
The US plans to expand strikes to defence industrial targets and missile production infrastructure.
President Trump said sending ground troops into Iran would be “a waste of time.”
Trump said Iran has “lost everything” militarily and suggested he may influence the selection of Iran’s next leader.

Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed some countries have begun mediation efforts to end the war.
Iran says it has not yet used its “new-generation” missile systems in the conflict.
Iranian authorities arrested five alleged US-Israel spies in Tehran.
Iran has now experienced six days of near-total internet blackout, with connectivity estimated at around 1% of normal levels.
The blackout is significantly restricting independent reporting from inside the country.

European countries including Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands plan to send naval assets to help protect Cyprus.
The UK is deploying four additional Typhoon jets to Qatar and Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to counter drones.
A Royal Navy destroyer (HMS Dragon) is also heading toward the region.