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BoE Chief Economist Pill says process of disinflation is intact, it is not complete; need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness

BoE Chief Economist Pill's remarks suggest a cautious stance on disinflation, indicating that while the process is ongoing, it lacks the momentum needed for policy shifts.

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BoE Chief Economist Pill says process of disinflation is intact, it is not complete; need to maintain monetary policy restrictiveness

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  • Underlying inflation should be focus of policy.
  • Key question for me is whether firms' wage and price-setting plans are settling at levels slightly higher than consistent with 2% CPI.
  • Disinflation is not rapid or as convincing as he had hoped.
  • Growth in the UK is positive but not very dynamic and strong cyclical component.
  • Trend productivity is not going back to where it was.
  • Productivity improvements are cyclical and mechanical.
  • More concerned about a step down than step up.
  • Disinflation in underlying services is flattening.
Context

His focus on underlying inflation and concerns about wage-setting imply the BoE may maintain a restrictive policy approach, which could support British yields and the GBP in the near term, as markets weigh the interplay of inflation dynamics and growth prospects.

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