BoE's Pill (annual report): "Based on the available data, I expect the disinflation process to continue, with CPI inflation falling close to 2% in the spring"
Newsquawk Staff ·
- "My view is that we should use the expected decline back to 2% to target to anchor inflation expectations. It is not a time for complacency. We should also be symmetric: if we looked through the temporary hump in inflation during 2025, we should similarly look through the trough expected in spring 2026"
What it means
The BoE's Pill expects the disinflation process to continue, predicting CPI inflation near 2% by spring. This guidance suggests a focus on maintaining inflation expectations and implies a potentially cautious approach to monetary policy, as it signals neither complacency nor aggressive tightening. This positioning may affect GBP and influence fixed income markets depending on how investors interpret the central bank's commitment to managing inflation over the medium term.
Sources
- [MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude grinds higher, Dutch TTF remains just under EUR 100/MWh, metals subdued
- [MARKET ANALYSIS] Contained, but a bearish skew, across fixed income into the UK Budget and FOMC
- [MARKET ANALYSIS] Antipodeans diverge as AUD saw strong CPI and NZD slumped on a surprise RBNZ hold, DXY awaits the Fed
- BoE is to kick off short and precautionary tightening cycle in November, according to a forecast from FT's Monetary Policy Radar team
- [MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY takes a breather after recent gains and heading into the FOMC, while NZD slumps on RBNZ's surprise pause
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