BofA Flow Show: Bull & Bear indicator 9.3 (prev. 9.5)

Weekly Flows (USD)

• 17.3bln into bonds
• 11.6bln into cash
• 3bln into crypto
• 2.3bln into gold
• 10.2bln out of stocks

The weekly Flow Show is a standing barometer of positioning rather than a news event, and its Bull & Bear gauge works as a contrarian indicator: readings at the euphoric end of its scale have historically been treated as a signal that sentiment is stretched, with the index still elevated even after this week's modest pullback. The flow pattern here is the classic risk-off mix, out of equities and into bonds, cash, and gold simultaneously, a configuration that in past episodes has coincided with crowded long positioning being trimmed rather than fresh conviction selling. Crypto inflows alongside equity outflows complicate a pure defensive read, since digital assets have tended to attract the marginal speculative dollar even in risk-averse weeks. The distinction worth drawing is between a sentiment extreme and a positioning unwind already underway: the former is a timing signal, the latter shows up in persistent multi-week outflow streaks. Worth tracking is whether equity outflows repeat next week and whether the indicator rolls decisively off its high, as single-week dips at elevated levels have frequently reversed rather than marked a turn.