US EQUITY OPEN: Tech pares back some recent losses as US/Iran negotiations and US midterms are in focus

OPEN: US indices opened predominantly in the green as the Nasdaq 100 outperforms and attempts to retrace some of its recent heavy losses. Given this, Technology sits atop the sectoral breakdown, despite pressure in both Apple and Palantir post-results. Showcasing the broad-based bid in the AI space, Memory ETF DRAM, Semiconductor ETF SOXX, and Neocloud ETF NCLD are all seeing strength as participants await the US midterm election results overnight. Overall, sectors are mixed with Consumer Staples and Materials lagging. US/Iran headlines have been continuous so far on Tuesday and have been largely optimistic amid reports the US has approved the draft MoU that Qatar presented to Iran, and that both Washington and Tehran have made concessions related to the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds, which saw WTI and Brent plunge to lows of USD 93.59/bbl and USD 100.80/bbl, respectively. However, benchmarks have pared a large portion of their losses in recent trade as Iran's National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said "US' response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened"; focus remains on any further updates on the US/Iran developments.

Elsewhere, precious metals are lower to differing degrees, with spot silver underperforming gold. Treasuries are weaker across the curve, while G10 FX performance is mixed against the Dollar. The DXY is more or less flat, while the AUD lags as the RBA failed to provide guidance. Ahead, earnings after-hours from SMCI and AMD are the highlights, and of course the aforementioned midterm election.

The US Jolts report was better than expected with Job Openings rising to above 7.5mln from 7.1mln, while quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9% and Vacancy rate to 4.5% from 4.3%, pressuring bonds.

• Apple (AAPL): Surging memory chip prices & rising AI-related costs weighed on profit margin outlook.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Elevated investor expectations & sharp slowdown in US commercial contract growth outweighed strong results, robust AI demand & accelerating FCF generation.
• onsemi (ON): EPS & revenue topped Wall St. consensus.
• Fabrinet (FN): Headline metrics beat with stellar next quarter view.
• Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC): Strong quarterly report & Q4 outlook.
• Shopify (SHOP): Growth disappointment sees pressure & results struggle to justify lofty valuation.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP): Revenue light as was FY top line outlook.
• Fiserv (FISV): EPS & revenue topped as did midpoint of FY profit view.

This is a broad session open rather than a single catalyst, and the pattern is a familiar one: a rebound attempt in a recently sold-off growth complex running into event risk, here the midterm results, where participation ahead of the outcome has historically been tentative and prone to reversal on the overnight count. The sharpest channel is crude. US/Iran negotiation cycles have a well-established rhythm of optimistic draft headlines knocking several dollars off benchmarks, followed by partial retracement when one side publicly restates maximalist conditions, which is exactly the sequence described. The distinction worth drawing is between genuine de-escalation, which compresses the geopolitical risk premium embedded in flat price and timespreads, and headline ping-pong, which tends to leave the curve structure intact; comments conditioning a Hormuz reopening on full acceptance of demands sit in the latter camp. The better-than-expected JOLTS print pressuring Treasuries fits the standard transmission of labour resilience into the front and belly of the curve when rate expectations are data-sensitive, and the AUD underperformance on an RBA that withheld guidance is the usual reaction when a central bank declines to validate a priced path. Single-stock dispersion post-earnings, with semis and AI-adjacent names splitting on margin and growth quality rather than the headline beat or miss, is consistent with how crowded thematic cohorts have traded in past results seasons. The follow-ons are the after-hours megacap-adjacent prints, any concrete US/Iran document rather than rhetoric, and the midterm count itself.