BofA Weekly Flow Show (w/e 14th Oct):

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BofA Weekly Flow Show (w/e 14th Oct):

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  • USTs saw USD 3.6bln of inflows; the 16th consecutive week of inflows.
  • USD 39.1bln to US stocks and USD 10bln to tech stocks.
  • USD 53.1bln outflows from cash.

Context

This is the weekly fund flows roundup from the bank's strategist team, built on EPFR data, and it functions as a positioning gauge rather than fresh information: the figures describe the week already closed, so the read is about what the aggregate investor base has been doing, not what it will do next. The combination here, large outflows from cash into equities with continued Treasury inflows, fits the classic late-rally pattern in which money market balances are deployed into risk; in past episodes, streaks of this kind in both directions have tended to persist for weeks before reversing, and the team's own framing typically treats extremes in the cash-to-equity rotation as a contrarian signal within its bull-bear framework. The distinction worth drawing is between flows confirming a trend already in price and flows marking capitulation, since forced reallocation out of cash has historically been a late-stage tell rather than an early one. The sixteenth straight week of UST inflows alongside heavy equity buying is the less common pairing and points to broad demand for duration and risk simultaneously, a mix that has tended to accompany easing-cycle positioning. The follow-ons are the next instalment of the same report and whether the cash outflow pace is sustained, since that series is the one this team has historically leaned on for its contrarian calls.

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