CBR Interest Rate Decision 15.50% vs. Exp. 16% (Prev. 16.00%); estimates that the underlying measures of current price growth have not changed considerably. After the effect of one-off factors fades, disinflation will continue

• "The baseline scenario assumes the average key rate to be in the range from 13.5% to 14.5% per annum in 2026"
• "Inflation expectations remain elevated. This may impede a sustainable slowdown in inflation."

The CBR's decision to lower the interest rate to 15.50%, slightly below market expectations, signals a cautious approach amid persistent inflation concerns. While they anticipate disinflation as one-off effects fade, elevated inflation expectations suggest that future monetary policy will remain tight, potentially influencing market sentiment towards the RUB and impacting cross-asset flows.