Citigroup sees ECB hiking rates by 25bps in December this year and in March next year

Citigroup sees ECB hiking rates by 25bps in December this year and in March next year.

This is a house forecast rather than a policy signal: a major dealer's economics desk putting a hiking path on the ECB, with the two moves sequenced across the turn of the year. Calls of this kind from large sell-side desks matter less for the call itself than for what they imply about the consensus distribution, since front-end pricing tends to shift when a well-followed house moves ahead of or against the prevailing OIS-implied path. The operative questions are whether the call rests on the ECB's own reaction function as communicated, on the inflation and wage data pipeline, or on a view that the Governing Council's hawkish wing is gaining ground, and whether other desks follow in the same direction. The distinction worth drawing is between the timing of a first move and the pace of subsequent ones: a two-step sequence implies the desk sees a persistent overshoot rather than a one-off adjustment, which is the more curve-relevant claim. The tells are the next round of ECB speaker commentary, the staff projections at the upcoming meetings, and whether peer houses converge on the same profile. As a forecast rather than a decision, it is directional colour on positioning, not a catalyst in itself.