Citron Research is short SanDisk (SNDK)

Full Post:

"Citron is Short $SNDK — They Don't Ring a Bell at the Top We don't need Anthropic to announce they're making NAND. Samsung is already the 800-pound gorilla, and they've been running this playbook for 30 years.

While TV pundits pound the table herding retail into cattle cars, Western Digital, the long time investor, sold a significant portion of its holdings days ago, 25% lower.

Ask yourself why. Because they know the cycle is approaching a peak, and they're not waiting for the bell.

The market is pricing SanDisk like it's $NVDA. There's one problem: NVIDIA has a moat. SanDisk sells a commodity. We've seen this movie before 2008, 2012, 2018. It's never different this time. Memory is a cycle, and cycles peak. Samsung has a 30-year history of choosing market share over margins. They wait for pure-plays like SanDisk to get comfortable at 50% gross margins, then flip the switch. But this time it's worse. Every $SNDK bull should read attached article Samsung just told the world they won't sell anything under 50% margins and they're moving their best chips into the same premium SSD market SanDisk calls home. They're not just the capacity gorilla anymore. They're going after SanDisk's best customers with cheaper, newer technology. And the only thing keeping supply tight right now? Samsung's temporary yield problems in another product line.  That bottleneck has an expiration date.

With double the capacity of the 2018 peak waiting in the wings, this "shortage" is a supply mirage that can vanish in a single earnings call.

Hockey shout-out: Shorting $SNDK is skating to where the puck is going. By the time the cycle normalizes, this stock will already be much lower."