CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 1.04 HIGHER AT 90.42/BBL

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CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 1.04 HIGHER AT 90.42/BBL

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The crude complex saw gains, recovering earlier losses, amid seemingly little progress on US-Iran talks while the Abqaiq oil city in Saudi Aarabia was attacked by the Houthis. WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 88.58/bbl and USD 95.12/bbl, respectively, in the European morning as they initially extended Tuesday's losses. However, benchmarks soon reversed, with some citing the FlyDubai incident as the initial catalyst, although it was later reported to involve a rogue pilot who was tackled by other pilots and passengers. There was otherwise little headline-specific news at the time to explain the recovery despite plenty of geopolitical newsflow, although it was later reported that the Houthis attacked the Abqaiq oil city in eastern Saudi Arabia during the afternoon. Trump reiterated that developments regarding Iran will be seen very soon and said there have been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz over the past three days.

On the supply front, sources suggested OPEC+ producers are set to keep output targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting. Meanwhile, in the weekly EIA data, crude stocks saw a slightly larger build than expected, while both distillates and gasoline posted larger-than-expected draws. Overall, weekly crude production rose 16k BPD W/W to 13.955mln BPD.

Meanwhile, many were reporting the Kpler data that showed crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz has basically returned to levels seen before the Iran war, thanks to US military escorts boosting shipments and pipelines redirecting flows. Kpler noted that crude transiting the Straight reached a seven-day average of 13.5mln BPD as of Monday. Regarding the Middle East as a whole, including the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, Kper data found shipments are sometimes higher than pre war levels - reaching a seven-day average f 19.5mln BPD, above the pre-war baseline of 17mln BPD. However, JPMorgan emphasised although crude shipments have normalised, refined product supplies remain constrained.

Context

Sessions of this kind, where crude sells off in the European morning and then recovers the full loss into the settle on geopolitical headlines, are the standard pattern whenever the prompt market is trading a live Middle East risk premium: the bid tends to come back on any headline touching Saudi infrastructure or Hormuz, and fades just as quickly when flows prove uninterrupted. The distinction that matters here is between the headline attack on Abqaiq and the flow data: Kpler showing Hormuz crude exports back near pre-war levels, and regional shipments above baseline on escorted tankers and pipeline diversion, argues the physical crude market is functioning, while the attack itself speaks to tail risk on processing capacity rather than current supply. JPMorgan's point that refined product balances remain tight even as crude normalises is consistent with the EIA print: a crude build alongside larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate draws, which historically steepens product cracks rather than flat price. The FlyDubai episode is a reminder of how thin the headline filter is in this tape: a story that turned out to be a rogue pilot was enough to mark the low. Follow-ons are the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend, where sources point to unchanged targets, any confirmation or denial of damage at Abqaiq, and whether product draws persist in next week's inventory data, since that is the channel through which this conflict is actually tightening markets.

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