EIA Expectations: Crude +0.35M, Distillate -0.63M, Gasoline -1M

• Crude: +0.35M, prev. -3.061M (Private -2.0M)
• Distillate: -0.63M, prev. +1.675M (Private +0.4M)
• Gasoline: -1M, prev. -2.952M (Private +2.4M)
• Cushing: prev. 0.987M (Private -0.5M)
• Production: prev. 13.269M

These are the desk consensus numbers ahead of the weekly EIA petroleum status report, the release that has long been the dominant scheduled catalyst in US energy trading. The established pattern is that the private API survey the prior evening sets the initial positioning, and the EIA print is then traded off the gap between the two: here the expected crude build sits against a private-survey draw, a divergence that has historically been the source of the sharpest knee-jerk moves when the official number lands on either side. The split matters as much as the headline: a modest crude build alongside draws in both gasoline and distillate would point to refinery throughput rather than demand weakness as the driver, whereas the reverse configuration reads differently, and product balances have tended to dominate the sustained move over the crude line in episodes where they diverge. Cushing and the production figure are the secondary tells, the former for its bearing on the front of the WTI curve and spreads, the latter for any sign of the supply trend rolling over. The usual sequence is a fast move on the headline miss or beat, then a re-evaluation once the implied demand and refinery utilisation detail is absorbed, with the private-versus-official gap historically prone to partial reversal in the sessions that follow.