Fed's Barkin (2027 Voter, Neutral) says policy rate is now at the higher end of the neutral rate estimate, still an open question about when inflation will fall to 2%

Economy:

• Recent economic data has been encouraging on the demand side, employment and inflation.
• A world of no job growth is 'uncomfortable' even if unemployment rate stays low.
• Concerned about risks to employment and inflation.
• Productivity is coming not just from AI, but from companies wanting to limit hiring, adapting to past labour shortages.

Balance Sheet:

• Size of balance sheet is odd to focus on solely because it includes so many things like cash in circulation, Treasury general account, along with bank reserves.
• Open to a conversation about any aspect of the balance sheet or other Fed operations

Fed:

• Fed is facing a different question now, with inflation above target, than the Greenspan-led Fed did in the 1990s.
• Does not know Kevin Warsh well, but that Fed chair nominee seems capable and charismatic.

Government Shutdown:

• Hopes the shutdown causes only a few days of delay in data.