Fed's Kashkari (2026 Voter) says it is too soon to assess Iran conflict impact on inflation, it could have an impact on monetary policy
Importance
Level 1
- Policy is in a good place.
- Uncertainty around tariffs has increased.
- Does not think latest round of tariffs will have a fresh inflation impact.
- Near term AI investment probably pushing up neutral rate.
- Expects housing inflation pressures to moderate.
- Inflation was headline in the right direction until the Iran war arrived.
- March SEPs will have more uncertainty.
- Expects Warsh to do well as Fed Chair.
- Current policy tool kit is complicated and worth debating.
- Powell has done a great job. Would love it if he stayed on as governor.
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