Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) says inflation is elevated and being driven by persistent demand pressures and supply shocks; key to bring inflation back to 2% in timely manner an limit second round effects

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Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) says inflation is elevated and being driven by persistent demand pressures and supply shocks; key to bring inflation back to 2% in timely manner an limit second round effects

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  • To bring inflation back to target, more monetary policy firming will be required.
  • Goes into all meetings with an open mind.
  • Current level of inflation requires Fed to think about rate increases.
  • Rates ought to be going up in the next six to nine months.
  • Contacts are mostly worried about inflation, does not see job market worries.
  • Economy is pretty strong right now, best thing the Fed can do is lower inflation.

Context

Remarks from a non-voting regional president carry weight mainly as an indication of where the hawkish wing of the committee sits rather than as a direct signal on the path of policy, since it is the median voter and the leadership that set the trajectory. The distinction worth drawing here is between advocacy for firming and an open-mind framing, and comparable hawkish interventions have historically shifted the front end only when they align with, or pull, the centre of gravity rather than merely stake out the tail of the distribution. Explicit reference to rate increases over a defined horizon, rather than simply a later terminal level, speaks to timing at the front of the curve and to the extent of inversion in the belly. Characterisation of inflation as demand-driven with second-round effects also raises the sensitivity of upcoming inflation and labour releases, a recurring dynamic in stop-and-go tightening phases. Follow-ons are whether governors or leadership members echo the same firming bias and how the remarks sit against the prevailing trend rather than against a single print.

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