Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker (Q3): 3.6% (prev. 3.7%)

The GDPNow model is a running nowcast, not a survey: it mechanically re-weights the quarter as each input print lands, so moves of a tenth or two between updates are routine model digestion rather than new information, and a downtick of this size historically reflects a soft contribution from one of the recent component releases, typically trade, inventories, or consumption. The model's track record shows it tends to run hot early in the quarter and converge toward the official advance estimate as the data calendar fills in, with the largest revisions clustered around retail sales, trade, and inventory prints. The distinction worth drawing is between a revision driven by the consumption and investment core, which feeds the Fed's read on underlying demand, and one driven by the volatile trade and inventory components, which officials have historically discounted as noise. Front-end sensitivity to a nowcast wobble of this magnitude has generally been limited; the releases that feed it carry the pricing weight, and the nowcast mainly confirms positioning. The follow-ons are the remaining high-frequency inputs for the quarter and whether the model's trajectory stabilises in the mid-threes or drifts toward the consensus range for the advance print.