Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 8th October 2026

• Multiple reports suggest that US President Trump has ordered the military to be ready for possible Iran strikes, with the President weighing the timing of the strike.
• Iran's working assumption is that there will be a US attack and the debate in Tehran is if they should attack first, according to Jerusalem Post's Stein.
• Samsung reported preliminary Q3 metrics that disappointed, while TSMC Q3 revenue topped expectations.
• Global equities and fixed income come under pressure as the energy complex gains (Brent +4.2%), which is further lifting the USD.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/03), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Minutes (Sep), UK Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election, Speakers including BoE's Bailey & Lombardelli, Fed's Kashkari & Musalem, Supply from US.

As of 11:00BST / 06:00EDT

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) are lower across the board, weighed by the upside across the energy complex amidst reports of potential US strikes on Iran before the midterms (see geopolitics section for details).
• Outside of the aforementioned geopolitics, Samsung Electronics and TSMC reported Q3 metrics. For the former, its revenue and operating profit missed estimates; on the other hand, the latter beat forecasts. Samsung shares fell 2.4% in Asia trade following its metrics, despite reporting a near nine-fold rise in quarterly operating profit, while TSMC (-1.4%) also slipped, although to a lesser degree.
• Sectors point to the negative bias. Media tops the sector pile, closely followed by Energy and Utilities. Underperformance comes from Banks, Health Care and Construction.
• US equity futures follow their European peers amid the rise in energy prices. Well-known investor Paulson has recently highlighted that the last time oil was above USD 100/bbl, US yields were above 5% and the USD was elevated, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 15% in the following three to five months.
• TSMC (2330 TT) Q3 Revenue TWD 1.49tln (exp. 1.46tln); Sept. Revenue 551.9bln (prev. 331bln Y/Y).
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Prelim. Q3 (KRW): Operating Profit 107.4tln (exp. 108.7tln), Revenue 195tln (exp. 199tln).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• G10s are mixed against the USD; the Loonie holds towards the top of the pile, given the bid in energy benchmarks, whilst the JPY lags on widening yield differentials. Oil prices have taken another leg higher following reports that President Trump could strike Iran before the midterms; moreover, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has led to supply disruptions in the region. (Please see commodities for details)
• DXY is essentially flat and trades within a narrow 102.13 to 102.39 range. Rangebound trade in the aftermath of an uneventful FOMC Minutes, but despite the rise in energy prices. Most recently, the Fed’s Waller provided some hawkish-leaning comments. He mentioned that more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, but there is flexibility over the pace, and hikes do not need to be consecutive. This spurred some initial two-way action, before the index climbed higher, but remained within earlier ranges.
• EUR is essentially flat this morning, and holds near recent lows just shy of the 1.12 mark. Political updates have taken a breather this morning, but still remain a key theme in the region. Germany’s coalition meeting took place in the prior session, which did not yield any significant progress, but perhaps more pertinently, a major breakdown from the coalition has to have occurred. Over in France, the OAT-Bund spread remains elevated at 142bps - with eyes now on October 13th for the start of the budget debate. Politics aside, EU-China trade relations have been shaken in recent days after reports that the EU is to impose a temporary import ban on Chinese hybrid EVs. EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is currently in China and is set to hold meetings with the Chinese Commerce Minister in hopes of easing tensions. Notable talking points will be on addressing the massive trade deficit with China and discussions on critical minerals.
• PBoC does not intend to devalue the CNY currency for trade advantages.

FIXED INCOME

• A bearish session thus far for fixed after the slightly firmer bias that was ultimately seen on Wednesday in USTs. Currently, USTs are lower by about 10 ticks and at the lower end of 104-04+ to 104-15+ parameter. Fed’s Waller sparked a very slight hawkish reaction, as his comments on future tightening were slightly more hawkish than what we saw from him before the September meeting; but, as he voted for a hike in September, the language today is not particularly surprising.
• Otherwise, the focus has been on geopolitics as crude posts gains in excess of USD 3/bbl after the escalation in tensions overnight on reports that the US is preparing for potential fresh action in Iran.
• Updates that have lifted yields across the curve, which is bear-steepening once again stateside while the belly is subject to the most upside in Europe.
• EGBs directionally in-fitting, though magnitudes somewhat more contained with Bunds lower by just 10 ticks or so, at a 120.61 base. However, OATs once again lag as the energy situation ties in with ongoing fiscal concern/pressures in France, sufficient so far to widen the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread to a 142bps high for the session.
• Gilts under pressure given the energy moves and the sensitivity of the UK economy to energy prices, particularly as we get ever closer to the first Burnham/Healey budget. At an 83.26 base, looking to 83.20 from Wednesday and then last week’s 83.17 contract low.
• Japan sells JPY 450.7bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.88x (prev. 3.79x), average yield 4.109% (prev. 4.079%), Tail in price 0.16 (prev. 0.28).

COMMODITIES

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are firmer, extending their rebound from yesterday's lows as US-Iran tensions continue to escalate (see below for details). WTI has risen to a USD 92.03/bbl high from USD 88.77/bbl (vs yesterday's USD 87.96-90.98/bbl range), while Brent has climbed to USD 104.44/bbl from USD 100.76/bbl (vs yesterday's USD 99.61-102.59/bbl range). Eyes are also on Hurricane Isaias which is making its way across the Gulf Coast.
• Dutch TTF is underpinned as renewed Middle Eastern escalation risks add to concerns around regional gas supplies and shipping routes. The broader energy complex has also been supported by the prospect of further military action, although the extent of any actual disruption remains uncertain. TTF has climbed from a EUR 79.31/MWh low to a EUR 80.67/MWh high.
• Precious metals are mixed, with spot gold modestly firmer as geopolitical risks provide some support, although upside remains constrained by global yields and expectations of further Fed tightening, with Fed Waller's recent hawkish-leaning remarks, alongside the upticks in the DXY, not helping. The FOMC Minutes were largely a non-event and showed all participants supported September's 25bps hike, with most expecting another increase by year-end. Spot gold has recovered from a USD 4,103/oz low to a USD 4,143/oz peak before waning again, nonetheless still well within yesterday's USD 4,067-4,170/oz range, while spot silver has underperformed, falling from a USD 60.59/oz peak to a USD 58.71/oz low.
• Base metals are mixed, with copper initially benefiting from the return of Chinese buyers following the week-long National Day holiday, although the broader risk-off tone and higher energy prices have since weighed on the complex. Reports that the EU is preparing a temporary import cap on Chinese hybrid cars have also added to trade concerns, while Goldman Sachs flagged subdued Chinese gasoline and diesel demand amid high domestic prices. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 14.5k/t in a USD 14,445.78-14,652.90/t range.
• US NHC noted that hurricane warnings were issued for parts of the northern Gulf Coast ahead of hurricane Isaias. NHC later said that Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance shows Hurricane Isaias is still strengthening and preparations across the Gulf Coast warning area for storm surge and destructive winds should be completed today.
• Saudi Arabia is said to be in talks to formalise Hormuz shuttle services in a push for market access, according to Bloomberg.
• Iraq's SOMO set the official November selling price for Basrah Medium crude to Asia at a USD 2.80/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average; to Europe at a USD 3.85/bbl discount to dated Brent; to North and South America for November at a USD 3.10/bbl premium to Argus Sour crude.
• UAE's ADNOC set November crude OSP at a premium of USD 11/bbl to Dubai quotes.
• Venezuela's Cardon refinery is resuming crude distillation after a fire, according to workers.
• Earthquake of magnitude 6.18 has struck Vanuatu Islands, according to GFZ.
• Goldman Sachs sees gasoline and diesel demand remaining depressed due to high China product prices.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said EU businesses need improved access to China market; goal of trip to China is to rebalance China trade deficit.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• BoE Credit Conditions Survey Q3'26: Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households decreased.
• BoE Bank Liabilities Survey Q3'26: Lenders reported that total funding volumes increased in the three months.
• Italy Deputy Economy Minister said that they are in talks with banks and energy groups over the contribution to state finances as it finishes its 2027 budget plan.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• German Trade Balance (Aug) 19.5B vs. Exp. 19B (Prev. 21.3B).
• German Exports (Aug MM) -0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.8%).
• German Imports (Aug MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. -5.7%).
• UK RICS House Price Balance (Sep) -32% vs. Exp. -30% (Prev. -28%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed’s Waller (Voter, Dovish) said more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, but there is flexibility over the pace and hikes do not need to be consecutive. On inflation, Waller said inflation remains too high, with AI investment and the ongoing energy shock among persistent inflationary forces. On the labour market, he said it was solid and stable in September despite weaker job creation and added that there is evidence that the economy is strengthening in H2'26. On Fed communication, Waller said communications can avoid promises of forward guidance while improving outcomes by signalling to markets about possible policy choices.
• BoJ maintained the assessment for seven of Japan's nine regions in its quarterly report, and raised assessment for two of the regions. Said many regions said firms continue to offer high wages, while some regions said firms are struggling to pass on costs could curb wage increases. Many regions said firms were passing on rising costs from Middle East conflicts, weak yen, as well as distribution and labour costs while some regions said that some firms in the areas were raising prices more frequently than in the past.
• BoE’s Pill said current price pressures are concerning and need to be addressed and that monetary policy must focus strongly on inflation.
• BoE's Greene said she thinks the UK will see some second round effects from current inflation and that there are early indications that UK wages will grow around 3.5% next year, which is worrying.
• ECB's Dolenc said inflation risks are skewed to the upside on oil, gas, food and strong growth, and added that more stable core inflation provides some reassurance that broader price pressures are contained. Dolenc reiterated a meeting-by-meeting approach and added that monetary policy is transmitted more or less homogeneously into broader financial conditions.
• ECB's Moulin said that inflation is clearly 100% energy and does not see second round effects, while adding that the geopolitical shock is transmitting into financial shock. Furthermore, Moulin said that economic growth in the Euro area has been quite resilient.
• ECB's Sleijpen said the energy shock is quite persistent and that inflation expectations are well anchored. Sleijpen added that he does not expect second-round inflation effects.
• ECB’s Zigman said the October meeting will involve intensive discussions.
• ECB's Wunsch said that the case for lifting the minimum reserve requirement is not very clear or convincing.
• SNB's Martin said inflation pressures have slightly increased since June and the recent rise is due to a lift in oil prices. Martin added that they are not observing any second round inflationary effects, which is extremely reassuring, while stating that there is no need to change monetary policy at this stage.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump administration moves towards temporary sales of some unapproved peptides, according to Washington Post.
• US is set to announce commitments from AI firms to provide more than USD 1bln in computing credits, according to Washington Post.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Oct 3rd) +3% Y/Y (prev. +5.6%); lower income spending growth continued to outpace higher income.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump stated that he doesn't think an Iran deal is something he wants to do. It was separately reported that Trump said the Iranians are ready to offer us anything to stop what's happening, even though an agreement with them is not the option he truly wants, while Trump was also reported to say that Witkoff is now working on reaching an agreement with Iran and is making very good progress, according to Al Jazeera.
• The US military has been ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes as President Trump weighs the timing, with the Pentagon said to have instructed US CENTCOM several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, according to Axios. The directive didn't include a specific date for launching strikes and President Trump hasn't made any final decisions, although US and Israeli sources said it could happen before the US midterm election. Furthermore, it was stated that if major combat operations resume, they are likely to be a joint US and Israeli campaign and expected to include large bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets.
• US President Trump and his national security team have discussed possibly resuming large-scale US military operations in Iran in the coming weeks, including the option of launching strikes before the midterm elections next month, according to NBC.
• The US is stepping up preparations and has completed operational plans in case President Trump orders strikes against Iran, i24 News reported citing sources. The report added that forces at Fort Bragg are ready to deploy to any theatre within 18 hours.
• Iran's working assumption is that there will be a US attack, according to Jerusalem Post's Stein, citing two regional diplomats, while the debate in Tehran is if they should attack first.
• US CENTCOM rejected IRGC claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that Iran has full control over it, while it stated that traffic is flowing through the strait carrying commercial goods and energy supplies, including 20mln bbls of crude.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran's considerations and conditions for ending the war on all fronts and restoring security to the Persian Gulf region and the Strait have been clearly and firmly explained, and the necessary response to US proposals will be provided through mediators. He also stated that Iran will continue its efforts to strengthen trust and interaction between regional countries, while he stated that Tehran has spared no effort, in consultation with Oman as another coastal state, to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz, and the two sides had agreed on the geographical coordinates for safe transit routes and on how the agreement will be presented internationally, while the agreement between Iran and Oman on the safe routes of Hormuz will soon be reflected in international references.
• Iranian intelligence services are reportedly targeting the US Ramstein and Spangdahlem air bases in Germany, WiWo reported. The report added that Iranian intelligence services are reportedly also targeting other US bases in Europe and planning complex attacks, with the UK also said to be a potential target.
• Pakistan's Army Chief said they are working to reduce the differences between the US and Iran, according to Nour News.
• Reports of explosions heard and fires visible in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, according to Sabereen News. Satellite images also showed smoke rising from the Abqaiq oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, and a fire at both Abqaiq facilities and Tanjib gas plant.
• Oil tanker assembly site reportedly exploded near UAE, Mizan reported; "Ocean sources reported the detection of a fire in the Gulf of Oman, approximately 30 nautical miles east of Fujairah."
• Yemen's Houthis said they attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile and stated Saudi airspace will be a target of operations except over Mecca and Medina.
• Syria officially denied reports of sending troops to Yemen, with its presidential media advisor stating the reports are lies with no truth, and affirmed that Syria stands with Saudi Arabia's security.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia's Kremlin said the exact timing of a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump will be agreed, adding that the call may take place, TASS reported.
• Ukrainian Forces strike an oil refinery in Russia’s Bashkortostan region and Russia's Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat.
• UK Foreign Office said Foreign Secretary Miliband will say in Kyiv today that the UK remains firmly committed to supporting Ukraine.

OTHER

• North Korea leader Kim's sister Kim Yo-jong said South Korea's preparations for sending medical aids is a political provocation and that hostile nature of inter-Korean relations and South Korea's identity cannot change.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin has almost pared the losses seen in the early hours of the Asian session and has now regained the USD 83k mark.

• APAC stocks were mostly on the back foot following the negative handover from Wall St, where stock markets pulled back from recent record highs amid bond market volatility, while sentiment overnight was pressured as oil rebounded amid geopolitical risks after reports that the US military has been ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes, with President Trump weighing the timing and could resume strikes before the Midterm elections, but with no decision made.
• ASX 200 was dragged lower as weakness in miners, materials and resources clouded over the gains in energy and resilience in defensives, while there was also an uptick in inflation expectations.
• Nikkei 225 retreated back beneath the 70,000 level as it continued to fade the recent tech-driven rally, while the TOPIX underperformed following the announcement that the Tokyo Stock Exchange plans to reduce the number of constituents in the index by about 40% to 986 stocks.
• KOSPI was pressured alongside indecision in Samsung Electronics shares following its preliminary Q3 earnings results, which showed operating profit surged 783% Y/Y, but missed the lofty expectations.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the resumption of trading in the mainland following a week-long hiatus, with pressure seen in tech stocks and sentiment was also not helped by trade frictions as the EU is said to be preparing a temporary import cap on Chinese hybrid cars.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is building data centres at rapid speed across its energy-rich rural areas as Beijing seeks to turn abundant electricity and cheap land into an advantage in a global race to develop AI, according to FT.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said fiscal stability is a pre-requisite to policy and said consumption tax cut won't create social security gap. Furthermore, Takaichi said that they are aiming to win markets trust by maintaining communication with the market with high transparency, and that they respect the BoJ's monetary policy. On JGBs, she said they will work to keep JGB sales around FY25's JPY 40tln level. Later, Kyodo reported that Japan PM Takaichi said that they will decide flexibly on extending tax cuts in an emergency.
• Japan reportedly plans 5.4% sales subsidy for farmers, Kyodo reported.
• A Japanese official said strengthening oil reserve capacity across Asia is a priority area in cooperation with ASEAN and a special meeting with Middle East oil-producing countries will be held on Thursday after the conclusion of the ASEAN ministerial meeting.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Taiwanese Trade Balance (Sep) 23.63B (Prev. 22.30B).
• Taiwanese Exports (Sep YY) 60.9% (Prev. 41.0%).
• Taiwanese Imports (Sep YY) 51.70% (Prev. 44.30%).
• Japanese Economy Watchers Survey Outlook (Sep) 47.4 (Prev. 48.3).
• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Sep) 47.0 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 46.4).
• Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct) 5.3% (Prev. 4.9%).