Fed's Waller (voter) says if expectations over the next 2/3/4 years rise, that is a problem

Newsquawk Staff · 22 May 2026, 14:54 UTC

Typically prefer market-based measures of inflation expectations.
If shorter run expectations go up, that is alarming, may have to take steps then.
No way we could go back to the small balance sheet of 2008.
Want to run an ample reserve type system.
Do not want to go back to a scarce reserve system.
Have not spoken to incoming Fed Chair Warsh about policy.
It is "crazy" given recent data, to be talking about rate cuts in the near future.
I have very strong beliefs in the need for central bank independence.
Recent labour and inflation data turned me on rate bias.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

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Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%

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