French HCOB Composite PMI Flash (Jan) 48.6 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.0)

• "The prospect of a resolution over the 2026 national budget offers some relief, as it reduces the risk of a renewed political crisis in the near term. This has contributed to a marked rise in the future activity index. However, the new budget is unlikely to deliver sufficient progress on fiscal consolidation."
• “Whether the manufacturing industry embarks on a recovery in 2026 remains uncertain. The headline PMI for the sector signalled a mild uptick in growth, but a more durable improvement would require a clear rebound in new orders, which remained in contraction in January. The continued decline in output prices and export orders also suggests that a sustained upswing in growth is not yet in sight.”

The French HCOB Composite PMI Flash for January printed at 48.6, below expectations of 50.1 and a prior reading of 50.0, indicating a contraction in activity. This miss suggests underlying weaknesses in the economy, particularly in manufacturing, where a recovery appears uncertain and dependent on a rebound in new orders. The implications for policy could lean towards cautiousness, as sustained economic improvement seems unlikely in the near term.