[PREVIEW] Riksbank Policy Decision on 4th November 2026

• Riksbank is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00%, supported by upside risks to inflation.
• As this is an MPU meeting, there will be no update to the rate path, with analysts expecting the existing path to be reaffirmed.
• Further out, markets expect one more hike in early 2027, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 2.25%.

OVERVIEW: Riksbank is widely expected to hike rates by 25bps to 2.00%, supported by upside risks to inflation amid higher energy prices, the ECB's hawkish action in September and indications that the Riksbank board favours tightening before year-end. Since the last meeting, Governor Thedeen has said there are strong reasons to raise the policy rate in the near term, Bunge said a hike is probably justified by end-2026, while Deputy Governor Jansson flagged an increasing risk of higher energy prices feeding into broader inflation. SEB describes a November hike as "close to a done deal". Note: Governor Thedeen will attend the post-policy press conference at 10:00 GMT.

DATA: On the data front, September's CPIF rose to 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 0.7%), in line with expectations, although CPIF ex-energy was softer at 0.5% (exp. 0.7%). Despite the recent cooling in core inflation, upside risks remain, including SEK depreciation, rising energy prices and the unwinding of some tax cuts. On the growth front, activity has been firmer, with Q3 flash GDP at 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.3%), potentially giving policymakers scope to tighten further. On the labour market front, employment metrics appear to have rebounded in Q3, in line with the Bank's forecasts, although unemployment remains above the Bank's projections.

BANK COMMENTARY: Nordea expects the Riksbank to raise rates by 25bps, citing a stabilising SEK following recent pressure and upside risks to inflation. Further out, analysts expect the Bank to pause in December before delivering a final hike in February. Elsewhere, SEB also sees a November rate hike and expects the accompanying press release to reaffirm the rate path outlined in September, which indicates some chance of another hike in Q1 2027. SEB believes a hike early next year is the most likely outcome.

LAST MEETING: At its last meeting in September, the Bank kept rates unchanged, as expected. The commentary, particularly the forecasts, pointed to a hawkish bias, with the Bank stating that "it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year". The forecasts implied a hike around end-2026, followed by another in early 2027, with some scope for a further increase by Q3 2028. Overall, the outlook was slightly dovish in the near term but more hawkish further out.

A telegraphed hike of this kind rarely reprices the krona or Swedish front end on the decision itself; the market-moving content in well-signalled tightening episodes has historically sat in the accompanying language and the press conference rather than the 25bp print. The structural distinction here is that an MPU meeting carries no updated rate path, so the only formal signal is the statement's treatment of the existing September path: reaffirmation keeps the early-2027 hike live, while any softening of the 'some chance of another hike' framing is where the dovish surprise would surface. The hawks' public positioning ahead of the meeting, with named board members arguing for tightening before year-end, follows a pattern where pre-commitment narrows the committee's room to disappoint without a communications cost. The tension worth noting is the split between headline CPIF accelerating on energy and the ex-energy measure undershooting, a configuration in which central banks have historically hiked but flagged conditionality, which is precisely what the press conference will test. Krona reaction in comparable episodes has hinged on the growth tolerance question: firm activity data gives the board cover to tighten into a weak currency, whereas energy-driven inflation with soft core is the setup where tightening has tended to be capped at one or two moves. The follow-ons are the press conference tone on the terminal rate, the December pause that sell-side consensus already assumes, and whether SEK behaviour between now and the February window validates or undermines the final hike.