IEA OMR: raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 930k bpd (prev. forecast 860k bpd)

The IEA's upward revision of the 2026 average oil demand growth forecast signals a stronger outlook for global oil consumption, potentially tightening supply dynamics given the discrepancy with projected supply growth.

Newsquawk StaffPublished 21 Jan 2026, 09:20 UTCOn the live feed at 09:00 UTC — 3 more headlines followed before this page went public

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IEA OMR: raises 2026 average oil demand growth forecast to 930k bpd (prev. forecast 860k bpd)

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Sees total world oil supply 3.69mln bpd higher than demand in 2026 in monthly report (prev. report 3.84mln bpd).
Estimates OPEC+ supply growth at 1.3 mln b/d in 2025.
Further decline in global oil supply in December continued to narrow surplus.

Context

With total oil supply now expected to exceed demand by a smaller margin than previously estimated, this could put upward pressure on WTI prices in the medium term, especially as OPEC+ supply growth is also robust. Traders should watch for market reactions as this affects inflation expectations and geopolitical conditions pertinent to oil-producing regions.

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