Israeli officials estimate that US President Trump will launch an attack on Iran, Al Hadath reports; Negotiations with Iran are expected to reach an impasse

Newsquawk Staff · 2 Feb 2026, 19:36 UTC

Israeli officials estimate that US President Trump will launch an attack on Iran, Al Hadath reports; Negotiations with Iran are expected to reach an impasse.

What it means

The report of potential military action by President Trump against Iran can signal heightened geopolitical tensions, which typically lead to risk aversion in financial markets. A military strike could elevate oil prices and strengthen safe-haven assets like gold and the USD, while negatively impacting equities and currencies from regions perceived as vulnerable. Observers should monitor the situation closely, as this could lead to volatility in multiple asset classes.

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What our latest note said

EU Market Open, 9 Nov, 06:36 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive.
DXY consolidated after Friday's jobs-driven upside; Antipodeans outperformed, with the NZD aided by the weekend's election result.

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Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports.
EUR/USD+0.1%
ECB policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause; New ECB staff estimates show the rise in bond yields cutting growth by a cumulative 100bps and inflation by 90bps in 2027-28 vs the September baseline, according to reports, citing sources.
EUR/USD−0.1%
ECB President Lagarde (Q&A) says policymakers believe they are in a good position to wait for incoming information. The situation they are in could have warranted a hike.
EUR/USD+0.1%

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