[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses firmer as HSBC lifts the banking sector; US equity futures hold onto Anthropic driven gains

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly in the green, with the FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 (+0.9%) gaining, helped by positive HSBC earnings (more detail below). The SMI (-0.1%) is the slight laggard, weighed down by Alcon (-0.9%) after the Co. missed on Q4 revenue and core EPS.
• Sectors are broadly in the green. Banks (+1.7%) and Basic Resources (+1.9%) sit comfortably at the top of the table, while Food, Beverages and Tobacco (-0.8%) is soft as poor Diageo guidance hits the rest of the sector (Pernod Ricard -3.6%, Heineken -0.8%). HSBC shares (+5.0%) are higher today for three reasons: 1) beating market estimates for its top line metrics, 2) lifting its annual 2026-28 ROTE to 17% or greater, and 3) stating its USD 1.5bln cost-saving target will be hit ahead of schedule. Alongside an update from Santander (+2.2%), in which they expect 2028 net income at EUR 20bln (exp. EUR 18.6bln), this is lifting the Banking sector. Diageo (-5.7%) has been hit hard this morning after it cut its guidance for the second time this fiscal year. The Co. sees FY organic sales dropping 2-3% (prev. guided flat to slightly down). Alongside the guidance was an H1 organic net sales figure, which fell 2.8% on a semi-annual basis, contributing to the slip in Co. shares.
• Other key movers include Aston Martin (+1.3%) and Fresenius (-3.3%). The British carmaker stated that its FY revenue fell 21% Y/Y, offset by a 20% workforce reduction for cost-cutting measures. The Co. also sees better financial performance from the delivery of more Valhalla vehicles. For Fresenius, the Co. raised its FY26 sales forecast to between 4-7%, but this missed estimates of 5.9%.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.4%) hold onto Tuesday's gains, which were helped by Anthropic's announcement that it will be partnering with many companies. Ahead, the main US event is NVIDIA earnings after hours.

European equities are showing strength today, largely propelled by HSBC's strong earnings report that has positively impacted the banking sector. This reflects broader market sentiment, as strong corporate updates can signal economic resilience; however, a poor outlook from Diageo has negatively affected the beverages segment, indicating potential volatility within sectors amidst varied earnings performance. Keep an eye on US futures and NVIDIA's upcoming earnings, as they could also influence market dynamics ahead.