Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 1st October 2026

• US President Trump said developments regarding Iran will happen very soon, while saying the US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz and the war could end soon.
• A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN delegation immediately leave the US after negotiations stalled.
• Crude futures gradually retreated overnight amid relatively quiet geopolitical news flow; spot gold mildly rebounded.
• APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.
• DXY eked out slight gains; JPY weakened on Tankan survey; 10yr UST futures were contained after Treasury yields rose across the curve yesterday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Sep), French Budget, US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Mann & Pill, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Nikkei 225	+3.1%	ASX 200	-1.7%
Hang Seng	Closed	Shanghai Comp	Closed
Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26	-0.4%	DAX Dec'26	-0.5%
ES Dec'26	+0.6%	NQ Dec'26	+1.1%

FX
DXY	+0.2% (101.65)	EUR/USD	-0.1% (1.1317)
USD/JPY	+0.6% (158.31)	GBP/USD	-0.1% (1.3246)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	+3.5 ticks	Bund Dec'26	+10 ticks
US 10yr Yield	5.28%	German 10yr Yield	3.58%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Nov'26	-1.7%	Brent Dec'26	-1.2%
Spot Gold	+0.6%	LME Copper	+0.1%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	+0.8%	Ethereum	+1.0%

As of 06:20BST/01:20EDT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

• US President Trump said we will see things happening very soon regarding Iran, while he added there have been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days and that the US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump separately commented that when the war with Iran ends, which will be pretty soon, gasoline prices will drop.
• A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.
• White House Deputy Assistant to the President said a deal between the US and Iran remains possible, and the Trump admin believes it can resolve the confrontation imminently.
• UK PM Burnham said there are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at the Fairford Air Base incident.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi rejected UK PM Burnham's accusations linking Tehran to an alleged security incident involving the Fairford Airbase in the UK, while he stated that "I can confirm Iran's belief that releasing supposed terrorists working for foreign states really says it all".
• Iranian officials said they received an official US response to its latest offer on ending the war, but didn't indicate what the response contained and if it was a rejection, according to NYP.
• Air Raid sirens were reportedly activated in the Azraq area of Jordan, according to SNN.
• US President Trump announced on Truth Social that the last American forces are leaving Iraq.
• Iraq's Hezbollah Brigades Secretary General issued an order to halt the group's military operations and logistical and field activities, according to ILNA.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were mixed amid a slew of data releases and with notable Nasdaq outperformance, while the SPX saw mild gains, RUT was flat and DJI lower, with the equal-weight S&P also declining. The majority of sectors were lower, led by Consumer Staples, Health Care and Real Estate. Meanwhile, Technology and Communication Services rallied, supporting the broader indices given their weightings, largely led by gains in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Attention turns to Micron (MU) earnings after-hours, with some choppy trade seen in late trade on account of month and quarter end. The macro highlight was US PCE, which was broadly softer than expected, although somewhat clouded by BEA methodology changes, with many expecting a downside surprise. The initial reaction was dovish but ultimately faded. Q2 GDP was also stronger than expected, while the Goods Trade Balance deficit widened in August, led by further capital goods imports amid strong AI-related demand, and ADP private payrolls topped expectations.
• SPX -0.20% at 7,656, NDX +0.23% at 30,409, DJI -0.86% at 50,909, RUT -0.38% at 2,797.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump announced a deal for nuclear power plants to be funded by South Korea, as part of South Korea's investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%.
• USTR Greer said 10 more trade deals are on the way, while he stated he is in frequent contact with his Canadian counterpart and that if Canada wants a deal, the US door is always open.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Cook (voter) said inflation has been too high for too long and she is committed to returning it to 2% while preserving labour market strength.
• Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation is still too high and is around a 3% rate, while he added that new data didn't change that story and that the longer the economy remains strong, the more he questions how restrictive monetary policy is. Kashkari said he pencilled in one more hike this year and another next year, while he hopes the Fed can bring inflation down with modest action and said the Fed must get inflation back to 2% given how long it's been above target.
• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) noted a record gap between consumer sentiment vibes and hard data of spending, while he stated that sentiment is a less informative growth indicator.
• US President Trump reiterated criticism of Powell and said he should quit the Fed board, while he also stated that Fed Chair Warsh will do his own thing.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside, where participants digested a slew of data, and yields continued to climb despite softer PCE data, while markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong were shut for the National Day holiday.
• ASX 200 underperformed with all sectors in the red and the downside led by weakness in energy, real estate and defensives, while a return to growth in Australian Exports and Imports did little to inspire.
• Nikkei 225 rallied with chip-related stocks boosted following strong earnings from Micron, while participants also reflected on the BoJ Tankan survey, which showed sentiment among Large Manufacturers improved but missed forecasts, and coupled with recent weak activity data, supports the argument for a less aggressive BoJ rate normalisation.
• KOSPI shrugged off the initial weakness and climbed into the green as tech-related momentum began to pick up. Furthermore, US President Trump recently unveiled plans for South Korea to invest USD 200bln in energy projects in the US as part of South Korea's investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%, while South Korean Exports surged.
• US equity futures rebounded overnight with Nasdaq futures outperforming on Micron earnings.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY eked out slight gains following the prior day's intraday rebound as yields continued to climb following the slew of data releases and despite the softer-than-expected PCE data. There were also several hawkish comments from Fed officials, with Cook stating that inflation has been too high for too long and she is committed to returning it to 2%, while Kashkari also stated inflation is still too high, at around a 3% rate, and new data didn't change that story, as well as noted that the longer the economy remains strong, the more he questions how restrictive monetary policy is and he has pencilled in one more hike this year and another next year.
• EUR/USD remained lacklustre after fading the early momentum seen following yesterday's firmer-than-expected inflation data from some of the bloc's key economies, while participants also look ahead to a busy schedule of central bank speakers.
• GBP/USD took a breather after recent outperformance and upward revisions to UK GDP data for Q2, while PM Burnham continued to suggest that a move to rejoin the EU is among the options.
• USD/JPY climbed higher and returned to above the 158.00 level in the aftermath of the continued upside in US yields and an overall weaker-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey.
• Antipodeans lacked demand amid the mixed risk appetite and with AUD/USD unmoved following the latest Australian trade data and RBA Financial Stability Review.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were contained after Treasury yields rose across the curve yesterday, with the long end leading the move to see the curve bear steepen, while there was plenty of data to digest, including higher-than-expected ADP private payrolls, which pointed to solid private-sector hiring, while Q2 final GDP was revised to the upside, and PCE was softer-than-expected, although much of the softness reflected well-documented BEA methodology changes affecting software and accessories, portfolio management, and legal services. Furthermore, the US Treasury announced it would buy back USD 6bln of 10-20yr bonds, matching the prior size, but did little to spur price action.
• Bund futures kept afloat after gaining yesterday, albeit in a choppy fashion, with prices retesting the 120.00 level and as participants look ahead to a slew of central bank rhetoric.
• 10yr JGB futures ultimately declined in two-way trade as participants digested the latest BoJ Tankan survey, which was somewhat disappointing as the large industry sentiment and outlooks mostly missed forecasts, but showed that the headline Large Manufacturing still improved from the previous, while the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ September meeting noted an opinion that it was appropriate to keep raising rates in line with economy, price and financial developments.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures gradually retreated overnight amid relatively quiet geopolitical news flow and following yesterday's choppy price action, with seemingly little progress on US-Iran talks, while the Abqaiq oil city in Saudi Arabia was attacked by Houthis.
• US President Trump said a diesel export ban is something they talk about daily, but could have a negative impact on gasoline, which would go up.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they will have some announcements on diesel and will hear announcements from Europe about new diesel supplies.
• US Interior Secretary Burgum said a European refined fuel stockpile release could lower prices and that European voluntary release of diesel stockpiles would help.
• Syria said three power plants are out of service following a gas pipeline explosion.
• Spot gold mildly rebounded after pulling back yesterday as yields climbed alongside a slew of data releases and despite the softer-than-expected PCE report.
• Copper futures were lacklustre amid the mixed risk sentiment and with its largest buyer away from the market for a week-long holiday.
• Escondida union was said to reject contract offer paving the way for a strike.
• European steel exports have fallen by a fifth with production at historic lows as the industry contends with soaring energy costs, according to FT

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin edged higher overnight but with gains capped and prices remaining beneath USD 84,000.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's Finance Minister said they will implement proactive fiscal policy and support achievement of full-year economic goals, while they will boost domestic demand, prevent and resolve debt risks, as well as appropriately accelerate the pace of fiscal spending.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting noted one member said it's appropriate to continue raising rates in accordance with the economy, price and financial developments, while a member said the policy phase has shifted and the BoJ must focus on keeping underlying inflation anchored around 2%. It was also stated that the BoJ must respond flexibly and demonstrate to markets its determination to prevent an inflation overshoot while staying mindful of FX-market effects and that the BoJ must accelerate rate hikes if signs emerge of an inflation overshoot. Furthermore, there was an opinion that the BoJ must raise rates towards the terminal level early so it can react quickly to unexpected economic and price developments, although a member said there is no need to hurry rate hikes, but policy must be steered appropriately as underlying inflation is likely to reach 2% soon.
• RBA Financial Stability Review stated that households and businesses are well placed to weather a slower economy and falling house prices, while it added that even if house prices fell a further 20%, only 5% of mortgages would be in negative equity. Furthermore, less than 1% of borrowers are in negative equity and household balance sheets remain strong, while banks are well-positioned to weather a material deterioration in the housing market.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 24 vs. Exp. 25 (Prev. 22)
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 21 vs. Exp. 22 (Prev. 17)
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) 35 vs. Exp. 36 (Prev. 37)
• Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 30 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 28)
• Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q3) 11.3% vs. Exp. 12.3% (Prev. 11.5%)
• South Korean Trade Balance (Sep) 49.9B vs. Exp. 38.2B (Prev. 34.8B)
• South Korean Exports (Sep YY) 83.5% vs. Exp. 61.7% (Prev. 68.7%)
• South Korean Imports (Sep YY) 26.0% vs. Exp. 21.5% (Prev. 22.5%)
• Australian Trade Balance (Aug) 0.5B vs. Exp. 2.0B (Prev. 1.923B)
• Australian Exports (Aug MM) 5.8% (Prev. -3.3%)
• Australian Imports (Aug MM) 3.7% (Prev. -2.5%)

GEOPOLITICS

OTHER

• South Korea's President Lee said they will take practical measures to lower military tension with North Korea, while South Korea is to upgrade its missile defence systems, including AI-based command networks and laser interceptors.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham said they are looking at all things, including fuel duty ahead of the budget, adding that it is hard to return to past growth without closer EU ties.
• BoE Governor Bailey said the AI boom could trigger market shocks, while he added that AI asset prices could see a correction and that AI investment brings sticky risks.
• ECB President Lagarde said France's debt situation is serious at 120% of GDP, while she stated France needs a credible budget trajectory and reforms to restore confidence. Lagarde said the European financial system is more solid now than during the 2008 and 2011 crises, as well as noted that if she leaves the ECB early, it will only be by a few months, according to La Croix Newspaper.
• ECB's Schnabel said high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient. Schnabel stated that robust credit dynamics suggest financial conditions are not yet restrictive, and it is possible the economy responds more to the recent global yield rise than assumed, which would dampen price pressures, while she added that inflation can return to the target more gradually when expectations are anchored.