[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are subdued after the prior day's steepening and data deluge
A consolidation session after a data-heavy day that bear-steepened the UST curve fits a familiar pattern: strong growth revisions and firm hiring prints reprice the long end's term premium rather than the front end's policy path, which is why the steepening, not the level, is the tell.
[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are subdued after the prior day's steepening and data deluge
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara says BoJ Tankan business sentiment is in line with the government view
[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices are range-bound amid relatively quiet geopolitical newsflow and following yesterday's two-way trade
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USTs: -2.5 ticks
- Remained subdued after Treasury yields rose across the curve yesterday, with the long end leading the move to see the curve bear steepen, while there was plenty of data to digest, including higher-than-expected ADP private payrolls, which pointed to solid private-sector hiring, while Q2 final GDP was revised to the upside, and PCE was softer-than-expected, although much of the softness reflected well-documented BEA methodology changes affecting software and accessories, portfolio management, and legal services. Furthermore, the US Treasury announced it would buy back USD 6bln of 10-20yr bonds, matching the prior size, but did little to spur price action.
Bunds: -18 ticks
- Paused overnight after gaining yesterday, albeit in a choppy fashion, with prices back beneath the USD 120.00 level and as participants look ahead to a slew of central bank rhetoric from both sides of the Atlantic.
JGBs: -28 ticks
- Ultimately declined in two trades as participants digested the latest BoJ Tankan survey, which was somewhat disappointing as the large industry sentiment and outlooks mostly missed forecasts, but showed that the headline Large Manufacturing still improved from the previous, while the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ September meeting noted an opinion that it was appropriate to keep raising rates in line with economy, price and financial developments.
The softer PCE component, attributed largely to methodology changes, has historically been discounted by the desk rather than traded, leaving the growth side of the tape dominant. Treasury buybacks of long-dated stock at unchanged size have tended to be absorbed without price response, consistent with the pattern here. The JGB leg is the more live story: Tankan misses alongside a Summary of Opinions carrying an explicit view that further tightening is appropriate is the classic mixed-signal sequence from the BoJ, where dovish data and hawkish communication alternate and the market trades whichever the Governor leans toward next. The cross-market thread to watch is whether central bank rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic confirms or fades the prior day's repricing, since Bunds stalling at a round level ahead of speaker-heavy sessions is the usual pause rather than a reversal signal.
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