[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures edge higher following the prior day's steepening and rebound in the short-end on dovish remarks from Fed's Williams

Moves of this size, a handful of ticks in T-note futures on the back of a single official's remarks, fit the established pattern of speaker-driven sessions: the front end does the work, the long end follows passively, and the curve steepens when the comments lean against near-term tightening.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures edge higher following the prior day's steepening and rebound in the short-end on dovish remarks from Fed's Williams

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USTs: +4.5 ticks

  • Edges higher overnight following the prior day's steepening, in which the short-end had rebounded on dovish remarks from Fed Williams, who sees no need for urgency after the September rate hike, while he argued there is time to gather more information to provide greater clarity on the underlying economic trends and associated risks in support of setting the appropriate monetary policy.

Bunds: +25 ticks

  • Remained afloat after benefitting from the recent pullback in oil prices, while participants await looming German supply and data, including Retail Sales and CPI figures.

JGBs: -4 ticks

  • Lacks conviction amid the positive risk appetite and weak data from Japan, while a 2yr JGB auction also looms.
Context

Williams sits close to the committee's centre of gravity by virtue of his role, so his framing carries more weight than the tails, though the substance here, no urgency, more data needed, is the standard holding language officials use between decisions rather than a signal of changed reaction function. The distinction that matters is whether the remarks merely defer timing, which reprices the front of the curve, or imply a different destination, which this language does not. The follow-ons that have historically determined whether such moves stick are whether other officials echo the tone and how the next data prints land against it. On the periphery, Bunds drawing support from softer oil and JGBs drifting on risk appetite and auction supply are the usual cross-currents; pending German supply and the Japanese auction are the near-term event risks for those legs.

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