[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures pulled back after gaining yesterday alongside a slump in oil prices, while demand is contained with cash treasuries trading shut overnight amid the Tokyo closure

USTs: -4.5 ticks

• Steadily pulled back overnight after gaining yesterday alongside a slide in oil prices, while demand is contained with cash treasuries trading shut overnight owing to the holiday closure in Tokyo.

Bunds: -11 ticks

• Marginally declined as recent upward momentum stalls ahead of German supply.

The sequence here is familiar: a rally in duration driven by a sharp fall in oil, followed by a modest give-back once the impulse fades. Lower crude feeds through the inflation-expectations channel, and Treasuries have historically been quick to trace that on the way in and slow to surrender it, so pullbacks of this size after an oil-driven bid are the norm rather than a signal. The more relevant caveat is liquidity: with Tokyo shut, overnight futures trade on thin volume and cash benchmarks are untested, a pattern that has tended to exaggerate moves in both directions and makes the overnight print a weak read on genuine demand. The distinction worth drawing is between flow-driven drift in an empty session and a repricing that survives the reopening of cash trade and the return of full participation. On the European side, the stalling of Bund momentum ahead of German supply follows the usual concession pattern, where primary issuance has repeatedly capped rallies regardless of the broader trend. What matters next is how the market absorbs the auction, whether the oil slide extends or retraces, and whether cash Treasuries confirm or fade the futures move once normal trading resumes.