Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.50%); decision was unanimous

An unanimous hold with core forecasts nudged slightly higher and an explicitly upside-biased balance of risks is the classic hawkish hold pattern, and it sits awkwardly alongside the easing cycle Banxico had been running: language of this kind, where the Board keeps emphasising slack and downside growth risks while flagging sticky core, has historically marked the point where incremental cuts slow or pause rather than reverse. The transmission distinction worth drawing is between the rate path and the FX channel: the statement makes exchange rate pass-through an explicit determinant, which means peso moves now feed back into the policy reaction function more directly than growth data do, so USDMXN and the MXN carry trade become leading indicators for the next decision rather than mere consequences. Target convergence pushed out to late in the forecast horizon, combined with the upward core revision in the nearer quarters, is the tell that the easing runway has shortened; on previous occasions when this board framed things this way, the follow-on was a longer interval between cuts rather than an outright stop. Worth watching is whether the unanimity holds at the next meeting, since dissents toward cutting have tended to precede actual moves, and how the minutes characterise the peso's role, given the carry appeal of a high real rate. As a hold with hawkish colouring rather than a surprise, the established pattern is a modest front-end repricing and peso support rather than a trend shift.