SNB's Tschudin (post-policy statement) says Swiss GDP growth was exceptionally strong in the second quarter, with unusually robust performance in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry
Post-decision briefings of this kind are where the SNB has historically done its signalling: the rate decision tends to be well flagged, and the marginal information sits in the governing board's characterisation of growth, the output gap, and the currency.
SNB's Tschudin (post-policy statement) says Swiss GDP growth was exceptionally strong in the second quarter, with unusually robust performance in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry
SNB's Martin (post-policy statement) says global economic growth was stronger than expected in the second quarter, remained resilient overall
SNB Chairman Schlegel (post-policy statement) says the SNB is also willing to be active in the FX market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions
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- Capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, while unemployment rose again somewhat through to early summer.
- Expect moderate growth for the coming quarters.
- Growth stimuli are likely to continue emanating from abroad. Moreover, our monetary policy and the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc are having a supportive effect.
- The main risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland stems from developments in the global economy. In particular, the situation in the Middle East and the trade policy environment.
The tension in these remarks is familiar for the SNB, a strong headline growth print driven by chemicals and pharmaceuticals sitting alongside below-average capacity utilisation and a softening labour market, a combination that has in past cycles kept the Bank patient rather than hawkish. The explicit reference to franc depreciation as supportive is the channel that matters: the SNB's reaction function has long run through the exchange rate, and officials framing a weaker franc as helpful has historically implied limited appetite to push back against it. External risk framing, here the Middle East and trade policy, is the standard Swiss hedge against imported shock, and episodes of this kind have tended to leave policy conditional on global developments rather than domestic momentum. The tells are whether the balance of rhetoric around the franc shifts at subsequent appearances, and how the next activity and labour prints resolve the gap between sectoral strength and slack. As post-statement colour, the read is that the Bank sees accommodation doing its work and is in no hurry.
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