NBP Post-Policy Statement: Rate cut should be seen as an adjustment and future decisions hinge on data, may intervene in the FX market

The NBP's post-policy statement indicates a rate cut should be interpreted as an adjustment rather than a policy shift, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on incoming data.

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NBP Post-Policy Statement: Rate cut should be seen as an adjustment and future decisions hinge on data, may intervene in the FX market

US ISM Services PMI (Feb) 56.1 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.8, Low. 52, High. 54.2)

US ISM Services New Orders (Feb) 58.6 (Prev. 53.1)

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  • The outlook for global activity and inflation is subject to uncertainty, related, in particular, to geopolitical situation.
  • The annual GDP growth was positively affected by an increase in domestic demand, including consumption and investment.
  • Annual wage growth in the enterprise sector in January 2026 was markedly lower than in the previous month.

Median Projections:

Inflation:

  • 2026 --> 2.25% (prev. 2.95%)
  • 2027 --> 2.4% (prev. 2.6%)
  • 2028 --> 2.55%

GDP:

  • 2026 --> 3.9% (prev. 3.65%)
  • 2027 --> 2.9% (prev. 2.6%)
  • 2028 --> 2.95%
Context

This guidance, along with a potential for FX market intervention, suggests the central bank is looking to support economic conditions amid geopolitical uncertainties, with lowered inflation projections implying a more cautious approach to monetary policy going forward.

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