NBP's Janczyk warns that energy-related risks could prompt rate hikes

A single council member flagging hikes on energy risks is the kind of rhetoric that has typically surfaced at the NBP when supply-side inflation collides with an easing bias, and the historical read is that such warnings from the hawkish wing move PLN and front-end FRA pricing only modestly unless they are echoed by the council's centre. The mechanism runs through the short end of the PLN curve and EUR/PLN, since a hiking repricing widens the policy differential against the ECB at the front, though supply-side shocks have historically been an awkward trigger for tightening, with central banks in this position more often tolerating the energy pass-through than reacting to it. The distinction worth drawing is between a genuine tilt in the median voter and positioning ahead of an energy price decision or regulated tariff change, the latter being a recurring feature of Polish rate debates. The follow-ons are whether other members adopt similar language, how the remarks sit against the most recent inflation projections, and the next council meeting's statement and press conference tone. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional and conditional.