CNB says underlying inflation trend has changed little in recent months and October core inflation 3.1% vs. 3.2% expected in bank's outlook

• Core inflation should remain stable over the few months ahead.
• Underlying inflation trend has changed little in recent months.

A core print marginally below the central bank's own forecast, with the trend described as unchanged, is the kind of signal that CNB commentary has historically used to validate an existing easing bias rather than to announce a shift. The relevant distinction is between the headline rate, which the CNB has long treated as noisy, and the core measure it targets for its monetary-policy-relevant horizon; a downside miss in the latter against the bank's outlook has tended to matter more for the rate path than comparable surprises in the headline. The koruna's response to commentary of this sort has typically been modest and short-lived relative to the reaction at actual board decisions, with EUR/CZK direction still dominated by the rate differential against the ECB and, historically, by the memory of the floor regime, which has conditioned how the market prices CNB communication. Worth watching is whether board members echo the same assessment ahead of the next meeting, since a unified tone has generally preceded continuity while divergence among members has flagged approaching turns. The established pattern for the CNB is gradualism: small moves with intervals, rather than consecutive action.