Pantheon Macroeconomics: the BoE DMP ends a hawkish month and provides confidence to forecast three BoE hikes over the next six months, starting in November 2026

Pantheon Macroeconomics: the BoE DMP ends a hawkish month and provides confidence to forecast three BoE hikes over the next six months, starting in November 2026.

The Decision Maker Panel has been one of the MPC's preferred gauges of domestically generated price pressure, and its readings on firms' own expected price and wage growth have historically carried more weight with the hawkish wing of the committee than with consensus forecasters. A private-sector call for a fresh hiking cycle starting that far out is best read as a view on persistence rather than a tradeable signal: consultancy forecasts at this horizon have tended to be revised well before the first projected move, and the value here lies in what it says about how the survey evidence is being interpreted rather than in the calendar. The distinction worth drawing is between the DMP data itself, which the MPC has on past occasions cited when arguing that wage settlements and pricing behaviour remain above target-consistent rates, and any one forecaster's extrapolation from it. What matters next is whether MPC members themselves lean on the DMP in upcoming speeches, since the survey has tended to move front-end pricing only when endorsed by the committee rather than when flagged by outsiders. Worth tracking alongside it are services inflation and private-sector pay settlements, the two channels through which DMP-style persistence has historically fed into Bank Rate decisions. As third-party commentary rather than a data surprise, this is directional colour on the hawkish tail of the rate debate.