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Riksbank Minutes (Jun):

Newsquawk Staff ·

Hjelm

  • "I believe, fundamentally, that the policy-rate path set out in the March forecast remains reasonable if developments are assessed to be broadly in line with the baseline scenario, given that the risk outlook becomes more balanced".
  • "In the current forecast, underlying inflation is a few tenths of a percentage point higher in 2027 compared with the forecast in March, but this is due to slightly greater indirect effects from the supply shocks, which I believe monetary policy should not respond to..."
  • In the context of the MoU, "This implies a lower risk of too high inflation and, consequently, less need for an upward revision of the rate path, although some upward revision may still be justified given the complexity of the conflict."

Bunge

  • Swedish inflation was "strikingly" low when the US-Iran conflict started. Additionally, "We also see that long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with the inflation target.". Temporary fiscal measures have helped.
  • Growth forecast being revised down was mainly due to developments at the start of 2026, rather than an outlook deterioration.
  • "Our interest-rate path suggests there is some likelihood of a rate hike this autumn, but we will have to revisit that matter after the summer. "

Jansson

  • "...a wait-and-see approach remains the best monetary policy strategy for the time being". Weaker-than-usual economy, both directly and indirectly (via inflation), "suggests there is no rush to raise the rate".
  • If the MoU had been accounted for, "the risk of inflation becoming too high in the future might have been assessed as slightly lower..." and "it would probably have put marginal downward pressure on the policy-rate forecast.". Emphasises such adjustments would be very minor.

Seim

  • Accounting for a increased likelihood of Hormuz opening, "I still believe that the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased since March and therefore consider that an upward revision of the interest-rate path is justified"

Thedeen

  • "...several indicators point to rising cost pressures in the business sector. At least some of these will probably be passed on to the consumers."
  • "It is a balanced policy to hold the interest rate unchanged for now, but it is also reasonable to indicate that it is now somewhat more likely that we will raise the policy rate in the future. I think that this forecast is still reasonable, given the signals now coming with regard to a solution to the war between Iran and the United States."

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