SNB's Martin (post-policy statement) says global economic growth was stronger than expected in the second quarter, remained resilient overall
Post-decision remarks of this kind serve as the gloss on a statement already released, and historically their market content lies in whether they soften or harden the language of the decision itself rather than in any new information.
SNB's Martin (post-policy statement) says global economic growth was stronger than expected in the second quarter, remained resilient overall
SNB Chairman Schlegel (post-policy statement) says the SNB is also willing to be active in the FX market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions
BoE's Lombardelli says policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist
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- In many countries, inflation remains above central banks’ targets, notably due to the higher energy prices.
- Anticipate that growth in the global economy will be moderate over the coming quarters.
- Although the high energy prices are likely to continue weighing on economic activity, an ongoing improvement in manufacturing momentum will provide support.
- Inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time.
- The baseline scenario remains subject to high uncertainty because of the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the trade policy environment also remains uncertain.
The framing here, resilient global growth alongside inflation that stays above target in many countries, is the standard justification for holding a restrictive or steady stance, and in past episodes of this type the SNB has tended to move only when its own conditional inflation forecast shifts, not on external commentary alone. The relevant distinction for CHF is between the rate channel and the balance sheet and intervention channel: the SNB's track record includes periods of active FX operations on both sides of the franc, so any change in tone on currency strength or willingness to intervene carries more weight than the growth assessment. The energy-price emphasis and Middle East uncertainty reference function as a two-sided risk statement, the kind that in prior cycles has kept the policy path data-dependent and raised the sensitivity of upcoming domestic inflation prints. Worth noting is that remarks acknowledging persistent above-target inflation abroad have historically supported the case for tolerance of a firmer franc as imported-inflation protection. The follow-ons are the full policy assessment text, any commentary on the franc's role in the inflation outlook, and the next domestic CPI release relative to the SNB's conditional forecast.
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